{ "ticker": { "uuid": "82a57eb7-d7e4-4046-9626-a05de4a0f7e9", "symbol": "8150", "name": "Allied Cooperative Insurance Group", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 42.756, "architecture_energy": 27.817, "architecture_maturity": 33.354, "architecture_confidence": 45.634, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.79, "rotation_up": 48.14, "upward_expansion": 46.58, "deceleration": 48.23, "rotation_down": 28.29, "downward_expansion": 11.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.005333, 6.936545, 6.641095, 6.576796 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.59, "trend_reference": 6.635, "distance_from_trend": 0.143934, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.551265, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.39528, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.800174, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.055633, "excess_performance": 0.087462, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.143934, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094816, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.39528, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.150234, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.038002, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.317765, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.055633, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.24708, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6484020, "relative_activity": 3.215419, "balance": 1.24708, "dry_up": 1.734225, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086044, "annualized_volatility": 0.430147, "from_high_reference": -0.385922, "from_low_reference": 0.343363 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.635, "fair_value_reference": 12.551265, "structural_low": 5.65, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.011534, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006576, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.316031, "worst_return": -0.204657, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.036641, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.029308, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.27223, "worst_return": -0.018421, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.048855, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.011784, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.283174, "worst_return": -0.284868, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.018336, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013888, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.448855, "worst_return": -0.485526, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.131621, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029197, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043776, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.104072, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward 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"New", "return": -0.142668, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.170339, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051672, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.385191, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.070522, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 13.58, "volume": 1085940, "typical_volume": 557965.6, "trend": 13.149333, "fair_value": 21.061326, "relative_strength": 2.268626, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": 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"trend": 6.737667, "fair_value": 12.70088, "relative_strength": -11.828768, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.152469, "energy": 46.277618, "activity_lines": [ 7.096667, 6.743273, 6.509143, 6.539419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.72, "volume": 1519189, "typical_volume": 1757378.25, "trend": 6.700333, "fair_value": 12.643957, "relative_strength": -16.19815, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.203165, "energy": 45.222261, "activity_lines": [ 7.022, 6.791818, 6.53919, 6.53828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.35, "volume": 1357288, "typical_volume": 1715874.3, "trend": 6.642667, "fair_value": 12.592355, "relative_strength": -18.324944, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.893758, "energy": 18.199038, "activity_lines": [ 6.808, 6.756545, 6.531714, 6.515677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.59, "volume": 6484020, "typical_volume": 2016539.7, "trend": 6.635, "fair_value": 12.551265, "relative_strength": -3.800174, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.755959, "energy": 27.817045, "activity_lines": [ 7.005333, 6.936545, 6.641095, 6.576796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }