{ "ticker": { "uuid": "82a7af16-ce95-4b20-8434-6af79e2fc35a", "symbol": "AA", "name": "Alcoa Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.271, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.812, "architecture_energy": 67.041, "architecture_maturity": 19.293, "architecture_confidence": 84.726, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.43, "rotation_up": 11.63, "upward_expansion": 13.87, "deceleration": 40.76, "rotation_down": 72.72, "downward_expansion": 89.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.75, 49.277091, 56.229471, 58.419703 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 50.17, "trend_reference": 60.167481, "distance_from_trend": -0.166161, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.611934, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.299339, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.666593, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.149249, "excess_performance": -0.274874, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.166161, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039162, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.299339, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.425, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.126666, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.406807, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.149249, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.544851, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23418239, "relative_activity": 0.906054, "balance": 0.544851, "dry_up": 1.013335, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.156142, "annualized_volatility": 0.587949, "from_high_reference": -0.405428, "from_low_reference": 0.745269 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 60.167481, "fair_value_reference": 38.611934, "structural_low": 42.48, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.000421, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008078, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.26072, "worst_return": -0.316548, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.058319, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.065314, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.191458, "worst_return": -0.213167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.0007, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.094717, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.391022, "worst_return": -0.259054, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 27724362.0, "trend": 61.30861, "fair_value": 38.340711, "relative_strength": -19.444763, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.715464, "energy": 85.270776, "activity_lines": [ 48.548667, 55.850952, 60.494741, 61.208738 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.24, "volume": 26114733, "typical_volume": 26802923.55, "trend": 60.980708, "fair_value": 38.409009, "relative_strength": -18.732487, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.479566, "energy": 84.787409, "activity_lines": [ 46.308, 52.859636, 58.775095, 60.107537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.26, "volume": 24330425, "typical_volume": 26423636.25, "trend": 60.610715, "fair_value": 38.488862, "relative_strength": -18.077308, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.271242, "energy": 81.453869, "activity_lines": [ 45.416, 50.384545, 57.225067, 59.093298 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.17, "volume": 23418239, "typical_volume": 25846391.5, "trend": 60.167481, "fair_value": 38.611934, "relative_strength": -12.666593, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.8121, "energy": 67.041296, "activity_lines": [ 46.75, 49.277091, 56.229471, 58.419703 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }