{ "ticker": { "uuid": "82ad48a5-2424-42e1-9f29-8f4582f7c70c", "symbol": "GREIT", "name": "UBS FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed Green UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 66.648, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.037, "architecture_energy": 73.848, "architecture_maturity": 32.929, "architecture_confidence": 75.029, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.71, "rotation_up": 73.41, "upward_expansion": 92.26, "deceleration": 42.86, "rotation_down": 12.05, "downward_expansion": 16.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 130.138664, 129.045817, 127.344476, 126.026921 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 129.0, "trend_reference": 124.443523, "distance_from_trend": 0.036615, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 117.056645, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.102031, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.701675, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.054425, "excess_performance": -0.028458, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036615, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034466, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.102031, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007982, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037017, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07539, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.054425, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.39391, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3088, "relative_activity": 0.415803, "balance": 2.39391, "dry_up": 0.507029, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021121, "annualized_volatility": 0.147111, "from_high_reference": -0.029345, "from_low_reference": 0.147637 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 124.443523, "fair_value_reference": 117.056645, "structural_low": 114.459999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.015619, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.023111, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.023761, "worst_return": -0.035877, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.008643, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.013706, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.008643, "worst_return": 0.008643, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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125.014096, 124.149566 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 131.160004, "volume": 5706, "typical_volume": 8148.45, "trend": 123.048997, "fair_value": 116.652705, "relative_strength": -1.045242, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.285765, "energy": 79.628289, "activity_lines": [ 128.520002, 127.149093, 125.695335, 124.708347 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 130.979996, "volume": 3565, "typical_volume": 7530.3, "trend": 123.585857, "fair_value": 116.795978, "relative_strength": -0.951383, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.52935, "energy": 81.36252, "activity_lines": [ 129.654667, 128.003273, 126.343334, 125.220024 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 131.179993, "volume": 2703, "typical_volume": 7458.2, "trend": 124.08724, "fair_value": 116.938394, "relative_strength": -0.865445, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.782638, "energy": 80.302395, "activity_lines": [ 130.367997, 128.769817, 126.970667, 125.709969 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 129.0, "volume": 3088, "typical_volume": 7426.6, "trend": 124.443523, "fair_value": 117.056645, "relative_strength": -3.701675, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.036881, "energy": 73.847876, "activity_lines": [ 130.138664, 129.045817, 127.344476, 126.026921 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }