{ "ticker": { "uuid": "82b0a8e5-6a00-47c2-b205-810642acc331", "symbol": "GME", "name": "Geratherm Medical AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.871, "architecture_energy": 41.742, "architecture_maturity": 16.69, "architecture_confidence": 92.323, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.7, "rotation_up": 15.91, "upward_expansion": 5.41, "deceleration": 46.76, "rotation_down": 55.53, "downward_expansion": 76.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.604838, 2.625535, 2.67961, 2.705208 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.58, "trend_reference": 2.740679, "distance_from_trend": -0.058627, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.765484, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.314829, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.748707, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.075269, "excess_performance": -0.139909, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.058627, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058833, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.314829, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027563, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.217487, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05611, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.075269, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.284139, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3016, "relative_activity": 1.54141, "balance": 0.284139, "dry_up": 0.734802, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053683, "annualized_volatility": 0.194391, "from_high_reference": -0.672589, "from_low_reference": 0.032 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.740679, "fair_value_reference": 3.765484, "structural_low": 2.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.013216, "positive_rate": 0.372093, "directional_follow_through": 0.581395, "median_excess_return": -0.011871, "regime_survival": 0.860465, "best_return": 0.265372, "worst_return": -0.312849, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.084675, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.093627, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.278571, "worst_return": -0.267016, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.065544, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.175152, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.015704, "worst_return": -0.287273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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2.747408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.562206, "volume": 1493, "typical_volume": 1887.8, "trend": 2.764012, "fair_value": 3.833516, "relative_strength": -18.776201, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.653009, "energy": 67.725268, "activity_lines": [ 2.620912, 2.672646, 2.713663, 2.733318 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.62, "volume": 476, "typical_volume": 1820.2, "trend": 2.755012, "fair_value": 3.810607, "relative_strength": -17.463663, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.547683, "energy": 56.315321, "activity_lines": [ 2.614221, 2.655912, 2.702518, 2.724027 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.63, "volume": 766, "typical_volume": 1809.15, "trend": 2.746679, "fair_value": 3.78865, "relative_strength": -18.473218, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.51864, "energy": 40.607261, "activity_lines": [ 2.618196, 2.64336, 2.692993, 2.715962 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.58, "volume": 3016, "typical_volume": 1956.65, "trend": 2.740679, "fair_value": 3.765484, "relative_strength": -21.748707, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.871019, "energy": 41.742201, "activity_lines": [ 2.604838, 2.625535, 2.67961, 2.705208 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }