{ "ticker": { "uuid": "82ba0d17-8ff3-451f-baaa-8b3131521de2", "symbol": "SLVR", "name": "Silver Tiger Metals Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 49.485, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 4.037, "architecture_energy": 4.658, "architecture_maturity": 17.144, "architecture_confidence": 73.747, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.46, "rotation_up": 27.77, "upward_expansion": 31.14, "deceleration": 41.39, "rotation_down": 27.82, "downward_expansion": 46.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.827333, 0.810909, 0.807286, 0.82 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.95, "trend_reference": 0.860333, "distance_from_trend": 0.104223, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.446346, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.128393, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.042479, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.030612, "excess_performance": -0.151034, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.104223, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005454, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.128393, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030325, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.040425, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015108, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.030612, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.431397, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3777600, "relative_activity": 1.060025, "balance": 0.431397, "dry_up": 0.986976, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117814, "annualized_volatility": 0.770894, "from_high_reference": -0.330986, "from_low_reference": 0.637931 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.860333, "fair_value_reference": 0.446346, "structural_low": 0.66, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.118421, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.126439, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.478261, "worst_return": -0.190476, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.141604, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.106069, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.211538, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.096491, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.147732, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.52381, "worst_return": -0.258621, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.396552, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.467015, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.857143, "worst_return": -0.649123, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.145833, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.173913, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.348485, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.494737, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.295775, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065217, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", 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0.866333, "fair_value": 0.430929, "relative_strength": -11.686377, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.622846, "energy": 16.217819, "activity_lines": [ 0.806, 0.794909, 0.806714, 0.83471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.73, "volume": 3640300, "typical_volume": 4197550.0, "trend": 0.868, "fair_value": 0.434199, "relative_strength": -17.146534, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.478978, "energy": 28.915657, "activity_lines": [ 0.779333, 0.782545, 0.798048, 0.825914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.78, "volume": 3405200, "typical_volume": 3917215.0, "trend": 0.864333, "fair_value": 0.437885, "relative_strength": -11.799993, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.00906, "energy": 22.665254, "activity_lines": [ 0.776, 0.781636, 0.795714, 0.820237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.77, "volume": 3246000, "typical_volume": 3757270.0, "trend": 0.859333, "fair_value": 0.441571, "relative_strength": -12.62862, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.642237, "energy": 28.830677, "activity_lines": [ 0.772, 0.779818, 0.79281, 0.814151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.95, "volume": 3777600, "typical_volume": 3563690.0, "trend": 0.860333, "fair_value": 0.446346, "relative_strength": 4.042479, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.036868, "energy": 4.658077, "activity_lines": [ 0.827333, 0.810909, 0.807286, 0.82 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }