{ "ticker": { "uuid": "82bb02fa-e30e-48a5-a5f7-13c873d1c80a", "symbol": "TIPT", "name": "Tiptree Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 73.403, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.656, "architecture_energy": 24.731, "architecture_maturity": 28.786, "architecture_confidence": 67.496, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.64, "rotation_up": 38.71, "upward_expansion": 68.9, "deceleration": 87.97, "rotation_down": 23.82, "downward_expansion": 6.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.934, 17.924182, 17.727796, 17.50655 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.12, "trend_reference": 17.321701, "distance_from_trend": 0.046087, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.528172, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.02203, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.405317, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.028815, "excess_performance": -0.158638, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.046087, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005692, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.02203, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030636, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134053, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.128101, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.028815, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.107825, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 991475, "relative_activity": 0.793227, "balance": 1.107825, "dry_up": 0.910815, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053719, "annualized_volatility": 0.194682, "from_high_reference": -0.332011, "from_low_reference": 0.173911 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.321701, "fair_value_reference": 18.528172, "structural_low": 15.435585, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.014306, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.035827, "regime_survival": 0.68, "best_return": 0.169534, "worst_return": -0.272573, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.03255, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.014742, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.346715, "worst_return": -0.226018, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.022351, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.099642, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.285145, "worst_return": -0.328582, "sufficient": true 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.185033, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.099851, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004613, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.084681, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.192454, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028053, 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"modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.050971, "energy": 47.789082, "activity_lines": [ 18.038667, 17.858956, 17.499523, 17.362818 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.8, "volume": 1211604, "typical_volume": 1306364.85, "trend": 17.315127, "fair_value": 18.466816, "relative_strength": -13.522478, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.147635, "energy": 40.191792, "activity_lines": [ 18.003333, 17.88294, 17.557209, 17.393521 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.79, "volume": 1061133, "typical_volume": 1305841.4, "trend": 17.308799, "fair_value": 18.491489, "relative_strength": -11.497739, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.575894, "energy": 34.01978, "activity_lines": [ 17.959333, 17.894909, 17.609692, 17.424158 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.77, "volume": 1289590, "typical_volume": 1271930.1, "trend": 17.304122, "fair_value": 18.508831, "relative_strength": -11.477379, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.446186, "energy": 26.228361, "activity_lines": [ 17.888667, 17.880545, 17.655975, 17.453913 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.12, "volume": 991475, "typical_volume": 1249925.4, "trend": 17.321701, "fair_value": 18.528172, "relative_strength": -13.405317, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.655939, "energy": 24.730827, "activity_lines": [ 17.934, 17.924182, 17.727796, 17.50655 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }