{ "ticker": { "uuid": "82c15e96-436c-4ec8-8e97-b11e786319d9", "symbol": "MDLZ", "name": "Mondelez International, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 48.782, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.595, "architecture_energy": 47.429, "architecture_maturity": 30.869, "architecture_confidence": 69.183, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.32, "rotation_up": 60.47, "upward_expansion": 79.48, "deceleration": 54.9, "rotation_down": 17.09, "downward_expansion": 6.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.842666, 53.450944, 52.821924, 52.08142 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 54.290001, "trend_reference": 51.17554, "distance_from_trend": 0.060858, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 55.95722, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.029795, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.445316, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.078464, "excess_performance": -0.095782, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060858, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043862, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.029795, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05043, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124453, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020931, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.078464, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.503927, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 198, "relative_activity": 0.887097, "balance": 1.503927, "dry_up": 4.349238, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035352, "annualized_volatility": 0.204799, "from_high_reference": -0.056974, "from_low_reference": 0.245975 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.17554, "fair_value_reference": 55.95722, "structural_low": 46.745792, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.009226, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.007021, "regime_survival": 0.708333, "best_return": 0.090921, "worst_return": -0.083872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.00094, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.031811, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.077611, "worst_return": -0.134659, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.015279, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.075288, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.151067, "worst_return": -0.100648, "sufficient": true }, 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053874, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080942, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.094887, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.000303, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.031622, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", 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29.006989, "activity_lines": [ 52.47936, 52.621548, 51.83361, 51.179822 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 54.150002, "volume": 191, "typical_volume": 42.05, "trend": 50.32974, "fair_value": 56.11824, "relative_strength": -10.76038, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.247472, "energy": 42.178556, "activity_lines": [ 52.944965, 52.910774, 52.125951, 51.443816 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 53.169998, "volume": 1471, "typical_volume": 115.0, "trend": 50.605766, "fair_value": 56.056518, "relative_strength": -12.829643, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.192721, "energy": 33.024609, "activity_lines": [ 53.05, 52.985369, 52.310588, 51.627058 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.259998, "volume": 2023, "typical_volume": 215.05, "trend": 50.901622, "fair_value": 56.00554, "relative_strength": -10.354432, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.547679, "energy": 40.084982, "activity_lines": [ 53.456666, 53.228888, 52.581433, 51.862815 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.290001, "volume": 198, "typical_volume": 223.2, "trend": 51.17554, "fair_value": 55.95722, "relative_strength": -12.445316, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.59504, "energy": 47.429328, "activity_lines": [ 53.842666, 53.450944, 52.821924, 52.08142 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }