{ "ticker": { "uuid": "82c3ac0f-d415-49d6-9685-835968651bf4", "symbol": "BST", "name": "Bastei L\u00fcbbe AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.162, "architecture_energy": 50.129, "architecture_maturity": 7.108, "architecture_confidence": 76.324, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.25, "rotation_up": 11.49, "upward_expansion": 9.28, "deceleration": 41.24, "rotation_down": 69.57, "downward_expansion": 80.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.486667, 6.676727, 6.754667, 6.776559 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.48, "trend_reference": 6.922, "distance_from_trend": -0.063854, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.791559, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.168331, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.391617, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.131367, "excess_performance": -0.196007, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.063854, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081232, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.168331, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053747, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.233916, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010671, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.131367, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.604307, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3818, "relative_activity": 0.3594, "balance": 0.604307, "dry_up": 1.902196, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066239, "annualized_volatility": 0.250066, "from_high_reference": -0.369175, "from_low_reference": 0.083612 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.922, "fair_value_reference": 7.791559, "structural_low": 5.98, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.008684, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.005223, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.07906, "worst_return": -0.149474, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.082222, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.124306, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.149554, "worst_return": -0.210654, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.273163, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.257507, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.10989, "worst_return": -0.275556, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.253216, "energy": 32.447001, "activity_lines": [ 6.68, 6.825455, 6.812571, 6.848946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.42, "volume": 31204, "typical_volume": 10727.3, "trend": 6.981333, "fair_value": 7.779902, "relative_strength": -22.836996, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.986507, "energy": 43.610318, "activity_lines": [ 6.548, 6.740727, 6.780476, 6.808903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.48, "volume": 3818, "typical_volume": 10623.25, "trend": 6.922, "fair_value": 7.791559, "relative_strength": -23.391617, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.161527, "energy": 50.129185, "activity_lines": [ 6.486667, 6.676727, 6.754667, 6.776559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }