{ "ticker": { "uuid": "82c5056c-9e85-4b3c-8f5a-bfed5e30c3b5", "symbol": "000066", "name": "China Greatwall Technology Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.609, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -30.638, "architecture_energy": 52.239, "architecture_maturity": 11.543, "architecture_confidence": 69.628, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.65, "rotation_up": 19.42, "upward_expansion": 21.09, "deceleration": 41.13, "rotation_down": 65.22, "downward_expansion": 58.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.76, 15.797637, 16.887857, 16.899914 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.82, "trend_reference": 16.827333, "distance_from_trend": -0.11929, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.492949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.098351, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.795231, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.066163, "excess_performance": -0.073562, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.11929, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026245, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.098351, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.660958, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127952, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.311079, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.066163, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.730337, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 624842390, "relative_activity": 0.743776, "balance": 0.730337, "dry_up": 0.925052, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.182498, "annualized_volatility": 0.724707, "from_high_reference": -0.424242, "from_low_reference": 0.130435 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.827333, "fair_value_reference": 13.492949, "structural_low": 13.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.019712, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.009762, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.362727, "worst_return": -0.12475, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.073541, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.035219, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.119372, "worst_return": 0.025098, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.031465, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.037603, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.057981, "worst_return": -0.126611, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.217183, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.027957, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.154999, "worst_return": -0.279368, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.196429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.079038, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012539, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.070414, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.060241, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061236, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06015, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017053, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.096625, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142154, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002438, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.217457, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.229821, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 12.31, "volume": 247203858, "typical_volume": 391219488.7, "trend": 12.639949, "fair_value": 13.330721, "relative_strength": 8.825093, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.107804, "energy": 23.437794, "activity_lines": [ 18.172667, 18.151273, 17.974191, 17.513634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.71, "volume": 1073233375, "typical_volume": 834879638.55, "trend": 16.820667, "fair_value": 13.468111, "relative_strength": -11.084027, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.119164, "energy": 4.426998, "activity_lines": [ 17.177334, 17.410364, 17.715572, 17.378882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.49, "volume": 787061394, "typical_volume": 850240008.55, "trend": 16.839667, "fair_value": 13.470339, "relative_strength": -12.392255, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.919711, "energy": 20.54145, "activity_lines": [ 16.162, 16.781818, 17.444952, 17.228516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.74, "volume": 623391093, "typical_volume": 830515921.3, "trend": 16.813667, "fair_value": 13.474359, "relative_strength": -15.24192, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.884626, "energy": 42.843014, "activity_lines": [ 15.12, 16.126182, 17.108619, 17.028538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.82, "volume": 624842390, "typical_volume": 840095416.0, "trend": 16.827333, "fair_value": 13.492949, "relative_strength": -12.795231, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.638398, "energy": 52.238846, "activity_lines": [ 14.76, 15.797637, 16.887857, 16.899914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }