{ "ticker": { "uuid": "82c99e29-ec5b-4535-8fee-990249acd61b", "symbol": "ART", "name": "The Artisanal Spirits Company plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.454, "architecture_energy": 70.721, "architecture_maturity": 25.135, "architecture_confidence": 88.047, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.06, "rotation_up": 11.15, "upward_expansion": 15.58, "deceleration": 38.6, "rotation_down": 73.36, "downward_expansion": 91.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.231, 0.244727, 0.266357, 0.279108 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.24, "trend_reference": 0.296, "distance_from_trend": -0.189189, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.423971, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.433924, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.587237, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.283582, "excess_performance": -0.334817, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.189189, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089231, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.433924, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076597, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.345872, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072461, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.283582, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.301827, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 83696, "relative_activity": 1.677875, "balance": 0.301827, "dry_up": 1.642847, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.139311, "annualized_volatility": 0.290346, "from_high_reference": -0.489362, "from_low_reference": 0.142857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.296, "fair_value_reference": 0.423971, "structural_low": 0.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.029412, "positive_rate": 0.259259, "directional_follow_through": 0.62963, "median_excess_return": -0.04263, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.222222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.121212, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.162678, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.356164, "worst_return": -0.255639, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.206158, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.267833, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.337838, "worst_return": -0.344371, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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-39.827312, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.108718, "energy": 76.652607, "activity_lines": [ 0.25, 0.268182, 0.283024, 0.293172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.225, "volume": 20977, "typical_volume": 56300.3, "trend": 0.302667, "fair_value": 0.430542, "relative_strength": -39.639987, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.532975, "energy": 78.324714, "activity_lines": [ 0.238, 0.258, 0.276595, 0.287925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.225, "volume": 36538, "typical_volume": 51440.4, "trend": 0.299, "fair_value": 0.427144, "relative_strength": -39.420705, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.376348, "energy": 79.217439, "activity_lines": [ 0.23, 0.249273, 0.270571, 0.282914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.24, "volume": 83696, "typical_volume": 49882.15, "trend": 0.296, "fair_value": 0.423971, "relative_strength": -34.587237, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.454109, "energy": 70.72137, "activity_lines": [ 0.231, 0.244727, 0.266357, 0.279108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }