{ "ticker": { "uuid": "82c9fbb8-96c1-48d3-b0eb-74b9655b3868", "symbol": "83403", "name": "CHINA ASSET MANAGEMENT CO - HSI ESG Enhanced Index ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.173, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 0.964, "architecture_energy": 29.988, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 50.993, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.54, "rotation_up": 49.87, "upward_expansion": 29.72, "deceleration": 41.33, "rotation_down": 14.67, "downward_expansion": 52.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.166667, 44.040372, 44.175226, 44.738522 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 45.860001, "trend_reference": 45.837877, "distance_from_trend": 0.000483, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 40.208999, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.140541, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.218343, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.066533, "excess_performance": -0.032952, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000483, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039677, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.140541, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030098, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032183, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028484, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.066533, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.331816, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.331816, "dry_up": 1.22479, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024102, "annualized_volatility": 0.153655, "from_high_reference": -0.127302, "from_low_reference": 0.133465 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.837877, "fair_value_reference": 40.208999, "structural_low": 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -96.99807, "energy": 98.507054, "activity_lines": [ 42.299222, 43.493875, 44.572768, 45.573305 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 41.720001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 908.5, "trend": 46.570602, "fair_value": 40.024174, "relative_strength": -3.815903, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.397246, "energy": 90.189996, "activity_lines": [ 41.874697, 43.023901, 44.211758, 45.24435 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 43.18, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 908.5, "trend": 46.371739, "fair_value": 40.054081, "relative_strength": -3.734886, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.991656, "energy": 83.314269, "activity_lines": [ 42.133974, 42.892958, 44.024696, 45.025602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 43.82, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 908.5, "trend": 46.207411, "fair_value": 40.091513, "relative_strength": -3.73781, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.008172, "energy": 62.184527, "activity_lines": [ 42.674686, 42.916405, 43.92492, 44.860974 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.459999, "volume": 5830, "typical_volume": 1200.0, "trend": 46.059763, "fair_value": 40.119358, "relative_strength": -3.78936, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.613347, "energy": 34.796031, "activity_lines": [ 43.401333, 43.105298, 43.908717, 44.748237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1190.0, "trend": 45.950821, "fair_value": 40.161795, "relative_strength": -3.859544, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.231756, "energy": 25.42101, "activity_lines": [ 44.492, 43.595788, 44.04793, 44.744382 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.860001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1190.0, "trend": 45.837877, "fair_value": 40.208999, "relative_strength": -3.218343, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.964385, "energy": 29.988347, "activity_lines": [ 45.166667, 44.040372, 44.175226, 44.738522 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }