{ "ticker": { "uuid": "82d28ed9-03f8-45ef-9f5a-8e27a66c1b30", "symbol": "ADO", "name": "AnteoTech Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.28, "architecture_energy": 20.27, "architecture_maturity": 73.878, "architecture_confidence": 92.022, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.3, "rotation_up": 21.26, "upward_expansion": 53.65, "deceleration": 90.95, "rotation_down": 38.89, "downward_expansion": 21.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.021733, 0.024127, 0.023086, 0.020641 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.022, "trend_reference": 0.0182, "distance_from_trend": 0.208791, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.021409, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.027614, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.952008, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.692308, "excess_performance": 0.628602, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.208791, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.166667, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.027614, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.454858, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.09952, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.283243, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.692308, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.106874, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20720350, "relative_activity": 0.555895, "balance": 1.106874, "dry_up": 1.035362, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.372378, "annualized_volatility": 1.535534, "from_high_reference": -0.521739, "from_low_reference": 1.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0182, "fair_value_reference": 0.021409, "structural_low": 0.01, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.037584, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.044035, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.235294, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.276786, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.253847, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.125, "worst_return": -0.428571, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.5, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.454614, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.5, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.103448, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.253062, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06383, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.315789, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", 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"volume": 21472736, "typical_volume": 31945217.5, "trend": 0.017767, "fair_value": 0.021678, "relative_strength": 49.015314, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.7064, "energy": 47.881816, "activity_lines": [ 0.028667, 0.0276, 0.022162, 0.01974 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.024, "volume": 48056133, "typical_volume": 33916899.05, "trend": 0.018033, "fair_value": 0.021582, "relative_strength": 26.445014, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.575952, "energy": 32.669711, "activity_lines": [ 0.027267, 0.027418, 0.022705, 0.020142 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.02, "volume": 44954763, "typical_volume": 35534867.45, "trend": 0.018133, "fair_value": 0.021511, "relative_strength": 5.473074, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.894031, "energy": 22.647473, "activity_lines": [ 0.024533, 0.026309, 0.02281, 0.020269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.02, "volume": 40636585, "typical_volume": 36787791.2, "trend": 0.0181, "fair_value": 0.021454, "relative_strength": 2.933005, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.128131, "energy": 19.272561, "activity_lines": [ 0.0226, 0.025055, 0.022871, 0.020389 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.022, "volume": 20720350, "typical_volume": 37273869.15, "trend": 0.0182, "fair_value": 0.021409, "relative_strength": 9.952008, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.280303, "energy": 20.270009, "activity_lines": [ 0.021733, 0.024127, 0.023086, 0.020641 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }