{ "ticker": { "uuid": "82d728c4-7d0a-4052-b4e4-4bae21f8bd1b", "symbol": "AROC", "name": "Archrock Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -6.174, "architecture_energy": 14.968, "architecture_maturity": 19.22, "architecture_confidence": 89.979, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.91, "rotation_up": 18.11, "upward_expansion": 42.91, "deceleration": 82.59, "rotation_down": 41.52, "downward_expansion": 34.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.156052, 36.268665, 36.455067, 36.09232 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 33.08, "trend_reference": 34.933176, "distance_from_trend": -0.053049, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.100461, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.432006, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.92809, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.045403, "excess_performance": -0.080221, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.053049, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.127096, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.432006, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.329857, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029281, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.228498, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.045403, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.022911, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12315242, "relative_activity": 1.408303, "balance": 1.022911, "dry_up": 1.014001, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103389, "annualized_volatility": 0.389585, "from_high_reference": -0.216671, "from_low_reference": 0.464387 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.933176, "fair_value_reference": 23.100461, "structural_low": 31.076363, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.011005, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.029467, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.100942, "worst_return": -0.096107, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.012037, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.033943, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.449629, "worst_return": -0.164147, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.154531, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.166138, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.573727, "worst_return": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.627653, "energy": 42.933342, "activity_lines": [ 38.269146, 37.348945, 36.871058, 35.786983 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.902519, "volume": 7257131, "typical_volume": 8681003.0, "trend": 34.019135, "fair_value": 22.647609, "relative_strength": 14.227171, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.849896, "energy": 35.199913, "activity_lines": [ 37.878759, 37.340653, 36.92397, 35.998565 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.908913, "volume": 8799687, "typical_volume": 8638533.9, "trend": 34.369974, "fair_value": 22.811208, "relative_strength": 11.181168, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.864304, "energy": 14.509463, "activity_lines": [ 37.13767, 37.148803, 36.873775, 36.120486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.531343, "volume": 7096641, "typical_volume": 8633553.2, "trend": 34.67795, "fair_value": 22.964757, "relative_strength": 8.242807, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.059055, "energy": 11.643315, "activity_lines": [ 36.341463, 36.915959, 36.78383, 36.195413 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.08, "volume": 12315242, "typical_volume": 8744737.2, "trend": 34.933176, "fair_value": 23.100461, "relative_strength": -2.92809, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.173581, "energy": 14.96798, "activity_lines": [ 35.156052, 36.268665, 36.455067, 36.09232 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }