{ "ticker": { "uuid": "82db0018-bcf1-447d-8c55-561088ada0ba", "symbol": "301027", "name": "Hualan Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.682, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.697, "architecture_energy": 30.765, "architecture_maturity": 8.958, "architecture_confidence": 82.305, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.38, "rotation_up": 19.74, "upward_expansion": 3.3, "deceleration": 51.74, "rotation_down": 46.4, "downward_expansion": 74.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.384, 19.485818, 20.448333, 20.799957 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 20.07, "trend_reference": 20.904667, "distance_from_trend": -0.039927, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.393473, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.394382, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.904111, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.141638, "excess_performance": 0.134238, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039927, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031939, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.394382, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.466057, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.019041, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116529, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.141638, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.418933, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20303299, "relative_activity": 0.800728, "balance": 0.418933, "dry_up": 0.915492, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116745, "annualized_volatility": 0.440166, "from_high_reference": -0.265373, "from_low_reference": 0.449097 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.904667, "fair_value_reference": 14.393473, "structural_low": 16.540001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.031825, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": 0.051216, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.310705, "worst_return": -0.212867, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.011494, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.016073, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.787517, "worst_return": -0.137559, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.05104, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.120991, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.37028, "worst_return": -0.298482, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.313344, "energy": 23.816306, "activity_lines": [ 19.726666, 20.179091, 21.261571, 21.165677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.950001, "volume": 29893136, "typical_volume": 32120852.7, "trend": 20.78, "fair_value": 14.264255, "relative_strength": 3.998239, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.731363, "energy": 20.844533, "activity_lines": [ 19.849333, 19.970182, 21.096857, 21.12086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.75, "volume": 24735272, "typical_volume": 28673097.55, "trend": 20.834667, "fair_value": 14.305745, "relative_strength": -2.277727, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.554931, "energy": 24.225076, "activity_lines": [ 19.482, 19.645455, 20.827572, 20.989893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.67, "volume": 17921385, "typical_volume": 27359407.95, "trend": 20.849333, "fair_value": 14.34589, "relative_strength": -0.742901, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.353608, "energy": 27.501961, "activity_lines": [ 19.166, 19.396182, 20.56281, 20.850237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.07, "volume": 20303299, "typical_volume": 25356064.85, "trend": 20.904667, "fair_value": 14.393473, "relative_strength": 1.904111, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.696741, "energy": 30.765174, "activity_lines": [ 19.384, 19.485818, 20.448333, 20.799957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }