{ "ticker": { "uuid": "82dcb0cf-f66a-4499-badc-8bf15e38a523", "symbol": "3219", "name": "Aethertek technology co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -9.176, "architecture_energy": 20.662, "architecture_maturity": 28.035, "architecture_confidence": 45.574, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.82, "rotation_up": 23.96, "upward_expansion": 21.76, "deceleration": 50.72, "rotation_down": 47.94, "downward_expansion": 42.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 66.657401, 67.935927, 70.694049, 69.908654 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 71.099998, "trend_reference": 68.446528, "distance_from_trend": 0.038767, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 53.45082, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.330195, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.914838, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.245164, "excess_performance": -0.196208, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038767, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055435, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.330195, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.360375, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.269148, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.20935, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.245164, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.885996, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1677569, "relative_activity": 0.690243, "balance": 0.885996, "dry_up": 0.532616, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.151987, "annualized_volatility": 0.69533, "from_high_reference": -0.351847, "from_low_reference": 0.431816 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 68.446528, "fair_value_reference": 53.45082, "structural_low": 53.281112, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.026613, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": -0.033506, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 1.035225, "worst_return": -0.22807, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.044763, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.107294, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.64154, "worst_return": -0.362105, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.089901, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.150516, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.401513, "worst_return": -0.450406, "sufficient": true }, { 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53.309768, "relative_strength": -36.471261, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.110364, "energy": 32.48679, "activity_lines": [ 64.354913, 67.900045, 70.703286, 69.668695 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 69.400002, "volume": 1870198, "typical_volume": 2469238.7, "trend": 68.325958, "fair_value": 53.377016, "relative_strength": -26.459446, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.223482, "energy": 23.443333, "activity_lines": [ 65.094107, 67.656214, 70.622513, 69.729683 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 71.099998, "volume": 1677569, "typical_volume": 2430403.45, "trend": 68.446528, "fair_value": 53.45082, "relative_strength": -26.914838, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.176359, "energy": 20.662003, "activity_lines": [ 66.657401, 67.935927, 70.694049, 69.908654 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }