{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "82defd55-1743-43f6-ba6d-b1c475e123de",
    "symbol": "002810",
    "name": "Shandong Head Group Co.,Ltd.",
    "exchange": "SHZ",
    "country": "CN",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "399001.SZ",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -23.726,
    "architecture_energy": 54.029,
    "architecture_maturity": 9.077,
    "architecture_confidence": 58.293,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 29.67,
        "rotation_up": 17.51,
        "upward_expansion": 29.16,
        "deceleration": 46.57,
        "rotation_down": 65.87,
        "downward_expansion": 54.16
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        19.633223,
        20.805742,
        22.373274,
        22.364795
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 20.24,
    "trend_reference": 21.611639,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.063468,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 15.398165,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.314442,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 9.528611,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.135165,
    "excess_performance": 0.127766,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.063468,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.141098,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.314442,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.578743,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.095286,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.411661,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.135165,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.840886,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 26927170,
      "relative_activity": 0.514551,
      "balance": 0.840886,
      "dry_up": 0.622645,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.13094,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.560933,
      "from_high_reference": -0.316909,
      "from_low_reference": 0.636217
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 21.611639,
      "fair_value_reference": 15.398165,
      "structural_low": 16.99,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.075577,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.2,
        "median_excess_return": -0.044376,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.330688,
        "worst_return": -0.178261,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.027417,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.058325,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.453988,
        "worst_return": -0.179348,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.058691,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.122191,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.182004,
        "worst_return": -0.386147,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.101796,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.025136,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.584729,
        "worst_return": -0.274423,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2024-11-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.045108,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-12-06",
        "end": "2025-01-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.121523,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-01-24",
        "end": "2025-02-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.009725,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-02-14",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.008045,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.144385,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.050132,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.006966,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.03166,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-09-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.018032,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-10-03",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.054764,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2025-12-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.016923,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-26",
        "end": "2026-05-29",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.470246,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.124658,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.045454,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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      },
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 56772314.8,
        "trend": 21.102973,
        "fair_value": 15.364683,
        "relative_strength": 8.130345,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "energy": 17.660386,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 19.17,
        "volume": 34508158,
        "typical_volume": 55136703.05,
        "trend": 21.301306,
        "fair_value": 15.375087,
        "relative_strength": 8.498252,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -29.154234,
        "energy": 45.966252,
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          20.480212,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 19.360001,
        "volume": 29930342,
        "typical_volume": 54468319.0,
        "trend": 21.431306,
        "fair_value": 15.383311,
        "relative_strength": 10.757481,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -27.479436,
        "energy": 55.365928,
        "activity_lines": [
          19.766498,
          21.085546,
          22.660842,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 20.24,
        "volume": 26927170,
        "typical_volume": 52331382.8,
        "trend": 21.611639,
        "fair_value": 15.398165,
        "relative_strength": 9.528611,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -23.72569,
        "energy": 54.028958,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}