{ "ticker": { "uuid": "82e8b4da-80be-4bf2-8b7d-b33aefe5bce3", "symbol": "VIPS", "name": "Vipshop Holdings Limited", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 91.64, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 31.135, "architecture_energy": 34.921, "architecture_maturity": 84.532, "architecture_confidence": 67.583, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.38, "rotation_up": 62.1, "upward_expansion": 34.51, "deceleration": 43.35, "rotation_down": 16.8, "downward_expansion": 23.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.03, 14.440364, 14.279466, 14.520931 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.68, "trend_reference": 14.997102, "distance_from_trend": 0.045535, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.674024, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.068555, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.101428, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.09103, "excess_performance": -0.216655, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045535, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08598, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.068555, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088274, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.141014, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068216, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.09103, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.244017, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10841598, "relative_activity": 0.947186, "balance": 1.244017, "dry_up": 0.826421, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060102, "annualized_volatility": 0.300762, "from_high_reference": -0.225565, "from_low_reference": 0.239526 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.997102, "fair_value_reference": 14.674024, "structural_low": 12.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.007825, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.03765, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.426282, "worst_return": -0.290909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.091928, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.055144, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.470085, "worst_return": -0.398296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.13565, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.162228, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.589744, "worst_return": -0.525027, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.940594, "energy": 29.676912, "activity_lines": [ 13.843333, 13.775636, 14.065718, 14.529506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.25, "volume": 7901854, "typical_volume": 11479724.75, "trend": 15.103517, "fair_value": 14.673068, "relative_strength": -18.717915, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.683695, "energy": 19.278201, "activity_lines": [ 14.048667, 13.853636, 14.053527, 14.464889 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.34, "volume": 7065996, "typical_volume": 11358421.8, "trend": 15.047844, "fair_value": 14.669447, "relative_strength": -13.232533, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.683592, "energy": 17.028723, "activity_lines": [ 14.556, 14.124545, 14.15024, 14.480146 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.68, "volume": 10841598, "typical_volume": 11446115.8, "trend": 14.997102, "fair_value": 14.674024, "relative_strength": -14.101428, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.134507, "energy": 34.920558, "activity_lines": [ 15.03, 14.440364, 14.279466, 14.520931 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }