{ "ticker": { "uuid": "82ef4d35-353f-4818-90c9-6024d4eb5eca", "symbol": "REFEX", "name": "Refex Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.983, "architecture_energy": 26.737, "architecture_maturity": 65.072, "architecture_confidence": 87.349, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.42, "rotation_up": 22.47, "upward_expansion": 56.37, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 33.58, "downward_expansion": 20.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 305.266425, 318.263435, 308.106887, 288.65461 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 292.899994, "trend_reference": 266.056225, "distance_from_trend": 0.100895, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 294.869891, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.006681, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.150867, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.285495, "excess_performance": 0.329204, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.100895, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028298, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.006681, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048673, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.001509, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.165076, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.285495, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.012354, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1621369, "relative_activity": 0.3308, "balance": 4.012354, "dry_up": 0.680985, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10942, "annualized_volatility": 0.440683, "from_high_reference": -0.305003, "from_low_reference": 0.557979 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 266.056225, "fair_value_reference": 294.869891, "structural_low": 188.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.005333, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021937, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.115413, "worst_return": -0.155628, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.096665, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.114824, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.954342, "worst_return": -0.114185, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.043749, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.153666, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.633767, "worst_return": -0.138287, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.093832, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073775, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.097545, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074012, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.189556, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 316.0, "volume": 2474664, "typical_volume": 4877749.95, "trend": 262.832891, "fair_value": 292.902456, "relative_strength": 9.986533, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.580441, "energy": 43.174605, "activity_lines": [ 326.439915, 328.10423, 304.824238, 284.223371 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 302.799988, "volume": 6168635, "typical_volume": 5025547.35, "trend": 264.182891, "fair_value": 293.84572, "relative_strength": 3.479814, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.921839, "energy": 26.662354, "activity_lines": [ 316.001896, 324.299741, 307.186443, 286.801893 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 292.899994, "volume": 1621369, "typical_volume": 4901361.1, "trend": 266.056225, "fair_value": 294.869891, "relative_strength": 0.150867, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.982531, "energy": 26.737125, "activity_lines": [ 305.266425, 318.263435, 308.106887, 288.65461 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }