{ "ticker": { "uuid": "82f86107-5e55-4590-8662-84427ab808af", "symbol": "603927", "name": "Sinosoft Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.233, "architecture_energy": 45.834, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 68.07, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.15, "rotation_up": 27.41, "upward_expansion": 19.61, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 45.72, "downward_expansion": 71.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.462667, 13.341455, 14.09725, 14.954428 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.78, "trend_reference": 16.287256, "distance_from_trend": -0.15394, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.358249, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.288159, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.211707, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.295861, "excess_performance": -0.252657, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.15394, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117107, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.288159, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11604, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.232117, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024257, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.295861, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.596018, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 67894280, "relative_activity": 1.712669, "balance": 0.596018, "dry_up": 1.758439, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070053, "annualized_volatility": 0.294705, "from_high_reference": -0.386192, "from_low_reference": 0.116694 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.287256, "fair_value_reference": 19.358249, "structural_low": 12.34, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.002865, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.012267, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.315756, "worst_return": -0.140229, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.004524, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019751, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.47914, "worst_return": -0.18232, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.161589, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.103584, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.390587, "worst_return": -0.185533, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"energy": 88.160782, "activity_lines": [ 13.088, 13.80021, 14.867301, 15.832387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.76, "volume": 66587315, "typical_volume": 35840717.55, "trend": 16.836589, "fair_value": 19.570077, "relative_strength": -27.528303, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.075511, "energy": 84.794904, "activity_lines": [ 12.883333, 13.48668, 14.578312, 15.555962 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.8, "volume": 78036056, "typical_volume": 36716319.4, "trend": 16.632923, "fair_value": 19.492664, "relative_strength": -27.563256, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.443778, "energy": 67.318192, "activity_lines": [ 12.818667, 13.255199, 14.324608, 15.295537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.03, "volume": 66317307, "typical_volume": 37986206.55, "trend": 16.464256, "fair_value": 19.421067, "relative_strength": -20.32859, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.835856, "energy": 58.766579, "activity_lines": [ 13.232667, 13.305491, 14.213286, 15.127606 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.78, "volume": 67894280, "typical_volume": 39642387.65, "trend": 16.287256, "fair_value": 19.358249, "relative_strength": -23.211707, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.233452, "energy": 45.834363, "activity_lines": [ 13.462667, 13.341455, 14.09725, 14.954428 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }