{ "ticker": { "uuid": "82f8b5c2-13b4-4ef3-9bae-d6e3d5ea3e4e", "symbol": "ITBL", "name": "WisdomTree FTSE MIB Banks", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.478, "architecture_energy": 59.884, "architecture_maturity": 53.04, "architecture_confidence": 55.967, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.79, "rotation_up": 28.0, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 66.71, "rotation_down": 41.85, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.209867, 19.775927, 122.745333, 265.971786 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 20.870001, "trend_reference": 445.099937, "distance_from_trend": -0.953112, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 460.562805, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.954686, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -96.926214, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.974569, "excess_performance": -1.145461, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.953112, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.357443, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.954686, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.673825, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.969262, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.988171, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.974569, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.614885, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 166986, "relative_activity": 3.452528, "balance": 5.614885, "dry_up": 1.60601, "accumulation_observations": 7, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 3.014876, "annualized_volatility": 5.454031, "from_high_reference": -0.975323, "from_low_reference": 0.400671 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 445.099937, "fair_value_reference": 460.562805, "structural_low": 14.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.072519, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.034063, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.144453, "worst_return": -0.031954, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.103832, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.052335, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.175328, "worst_return": -0.147884, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.246059, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.139034, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.340882, "worst_return": 0.106228, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.120001, "volume": 46347, "typical_volume": 40143.1, "trend": 471.313604, "fair_value": 461.992293, "relative_strength": -97.020965, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.733437, "energy": 60.491749, "activity_lines": [ 19.828533, 19.418873, 150.988895, 295.032664 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.870001, "volume": 166986, "typical_volume": 48366.3, "trend": 445.099937, "fair_value": 460.562805, "relative_strength": -96.926214, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.478471, "energy": 59.88361, "activity_lines": [ 20.209867, 19.775927, 122.745333, 265.971786 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }