{ "ticker": { "uuid": "82f97a02-e507-4d35-a39d-dbd4d77d005a", "symbol": "002681", "name": "Shenzhen Fenda Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.492, "architecture_energy": 48.159, "architecture_maturity": 66.041, "architecture_confidence": 81.918, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.71, "rotation_up": 15.21, "upward_expansion": 6.22, "deceleration": 51.81, "rotation_down": 63.27, "downward_expansion": 79.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.447333, 4.576182, 4.854857, 5.080559 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.57, "trend_reference": 5.466333, "distance_from_trend": -0.163973, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.651474, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.191361, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.464378, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.29584, "excess_performance": -0.30324, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.163973, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111743, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.191361, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166814, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.284644, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043244, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.29584, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.978628, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 299176056, "relative_activity": 1.629504, "balance": 0.978628, "dry_up": 1.561824, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121528, "annualized_volatility": 0.386308, "from_high_reference": -0.467366, "from_low_reference": 0.148241 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.466333, "fair_value_reference": 5.651474, "structural_low": 3.98, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.008174, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.013433, "regime_survival": 0.740741, "best_return": 0.212598, "worst_return": -0.169014, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.074224, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.026655, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.615385, "worst_return": -0.177419, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.048704, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.067516, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.27321, "worst_return": -0.047887, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.782625, "energy": 54.933736, "activity_lines": [ 4.831333, 4.994182, 5.157048, 5.400817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.66, "volume": 339750354, "typical_volume": 162419882.1, "trend": 5.694667, "fair_value": 5.662308, "relative_strength": -26.573742, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.6768, "energy": 49.29284, "activity_lines": [ 4.776667, 4.903636, 5.092238, 5.329699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.08, "volume": 283926698, "typical_volume": 168720800.35, "trend": 5.611333, "fair_value": 5.657692, "relative_strength": -35.246068, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.821997, "energy": 56.678189, "activity_lines": [ 4.538, 4.723273, 4.98081, 5.225527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.33, "volume": 224146701, "typical_volume": 174496829.85, "trend": 5.535667, "fair_value": 5.653526, "relative_strength": -29.421817, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.499235, "energy": 51.960516, "activity_lines": [ 4.442, 4.614182, 4.902619, 5.14286 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.57, "volume": 299176056, "typical_volume": 183599440.8, "trend": 5.466333, "fair_value": 5.651474, "relative_strength": -28.464378, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.491625, "energy": 48.158983, "activity_lines": [ 4.447333, 4.576182, 4.854857, 5.080559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }