{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8300244b-6276-4693-96a6-546294aa558e", "symbol": "002134", "name": "Tianjin Printronics Circuit Corporation", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.563, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.045, "architecture_energy": 54.506, "architecture_maturity": 9.214, "architecture_confidence": 83.37, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.71, "rotation_up": 16.72, "upward_expansion": 27.52, "deceleration": 48.83, "rotation_down": 67.22, "downward_expansion": 50.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.187333, 23.724909, 25.353619, 24.998129 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 22.549999, "trend_reference": 24.785, "distance_from_trend": -0.090176, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.891026, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.335028, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.426037, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.028017, "excess_performance": -0.035417, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.090176, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028011, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.335028, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.564497, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.07426, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134842, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.028017, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.509095, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46887501, "relative_activity": 0.965219, "balance": 0.509095, "dry_up": 1.09712, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.155006, "annualized_volatility": 0.607959, "from_high_reference": -0.330065, "from_low_reference": 0.254869 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.785, "fair_value_reference": 16.891026, "structural_low": 17.969999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.266773, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.261157, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.865007, "worst_return": -0.098592, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.394877, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.264908, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.798165, "worst_return": -0.12026, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.263311, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.089132, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.788991, "worst_return": 0.101343, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010309, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.328889, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.10794, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130761, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.131072, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.254086, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015932, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.248313, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.073478, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 10.01, "volume": 58629684, "typical_volume": 49898837.4, "trend": 9.78, "fair_value": 9.307051, "relative_strength": 7.28702, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.089175, "energy": 28.251497, 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59.302732, "energy": 41.952963, "activity_lines": [ 29.017333, 28.906364, 26.885476, 25.995806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 27.25, "volume": 78961278, "typical_volume": 44592964.2, "trend": 25.321333, "fair_value": 16.627244, "relative_strength": 4.253415, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.454977, "energy": 32.943504, "activity_lines": [ 28.566667, 28.646545, 27.071381, 26.131699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.280001, "volume": 59303666, "typical_volume": 46326955.4, "trend": 25.267, "fair_value": 16.704423, "relative_strength": -6.016293, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.625382, "energy": 12.189402, "activity_lines": [ 26.413334, 27.448, 26.767905, 25.935484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.870001, "volume": 63413724, "typical_volume": 47130411.2, "trend": 25.165667, "fair_value": 16.762692, "relative_strength": -16.083967, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.016342, "energy": 33.052379, "activity_lines": [ 23.834667, 25.942546, 26.244714, 25.58729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.41, "volume": 43574626, "typical_volume": 47623556.25, "trend": 24.926333, "fair_value": 16.810641, "relative_strength": -20.649915, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.346843, "energy": 52.502725, "activity_lines": [ 21.466001, 24.355273, 25.595191, 25.151441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.549999, "volume": 46887501, "typical_volume": 48577063.15, "trend": 24.785, "fair_value": 16.891026, "relative_strength": -7.426037, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.044868, "energy": 54.506118, "activity_lines": [ 21.187333, 23.724909, 25.353619, 24.998129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }