{ "ticker": { "uuid": "830896be-ec41-495c-b204-0796ab0cabed", "symbol": "000820", "name": "Shenwu Energy Saving Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 81.541, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -6.96, "architecture_energy": 11.503, "architecture_maturity": 68.591, "architecture_confidence": 45.055, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.79, "rotation_up": 36.01, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 41.15, "rotation_down": 20.46, "downward_expansion": 56.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.326667, 3.166364, 3.278619, 3.344731 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3.76, "trend_reference": 3.456333, "distance_from_trend": 0.087858, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.215705, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.169261, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 12.255395, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.038363, "excess_performance": -0.045763, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087858, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019758, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.169261, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002748, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.122554, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122624, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.038363, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.425177, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 386844683, "relative_activity": 8.67641, "balance": 2.425177, "dry_up": 2.427354, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110679, "annualized_volatility": 0.531904, "from_high_reference": -0.164444, "from_low_reference": 0.540984 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.456333, "fair_value_reference": 3.215705, "structural_low": 2.59, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.019231, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": 0.035242, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.428571, "worst_return": -0.27907, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.048851, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.118202, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.471429, "worst_return": -0.246753, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.044, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.084853, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.144444, "worst_return": -0.237288, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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3.046, 3.315273, 3.411571, 3.466409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 3.12, "volume": 8893500, "typical_volume": 27703117.5, "trend": 3.489667, "fair_value": 3.232885, "relative_strength": -15.781303, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.999389, "energy": 75.034945, "activity_lines": [ 3.016667, 3.254, 3.379905, 3.441806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.89, "volume": 22586080, "typical_volume": 27285993.9, "trend": 3.476333, "fair_value": 3.229103, "relative_strength": -18.625031, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.233782, "energy": 75.422283, "activity_lines": [ 2.95, 3.155818, 3.328, 3.403118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.76, "volume": 17441278, "typical_volume": 27068532.15, "trend": 3.456, "fair_value": 3.222885, "relative_strength": -14.299996, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.099919, "energy": 74.219095, "activity_lines": [ 2.876667, 3.049636, 3.267381, 3.356903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.87, "volume": 16876450, "typical_volume": 26848384.45, "trend": 3.438667, "fair_value": 3.217372, "relative_strength": -10.884589, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.671618, "energy": 47.948286, "activity_lines": [ 2.867333, 2.982727, 3.220857, 3.319097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.52, "volume": 11739712, "typical_volume": 26519571.5, "trend": 3.444, "fair_value": 3.216154, "relative_strength": 10.853496, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.170921, "energy": 25.558673, "activity_lines": [ 3.084, 3.05, 3.23881, 3.324344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.76, "volume": 386844683, "typical_volume": 44585802.1, "trend": 3.456333, "fair_value": 3.215705, "relative_strength": 12.255395, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.959853, "energy": 11.502765, "activity_lines": [ 3.326667, 3.166364, 3.278619, 3.344731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }