{ "ticker": { "uuid": "830a2fcb-3075-422f-9e45-f06733c207ce", "symbol": "GRBK", "name": "Green Brick Partners Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.586, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.464, "architecture_energy": 20.85, "architecture_maturity": 46.882, "architecture_confidence": 78.14, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.62, "rotation_up": 23.73, "upward_expansion": 59.09, "deceleration": 90.65, "rotation_down": 29.97, "downward_expansion": 13.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 72.266667, 73.649636, 71.799095, 70.832495 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 72.9, "trend_reference": 70.529333, "distance_from_trend": 0.033612, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 62.475321, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.166861, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.519786, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.033925, "excess_performance": -0.15955, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033612, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040476, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.166861, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082436, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.065198, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059957, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.033925, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.32647, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1122655, "relative_activity": 0.992287, "balance": 1.32647, "dry_up": 0.957725, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064634, "annualized_volatility": 0.334069, "from_high_reference": -0.123587, "from_low_reference": 0.206155 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 70.529333, "fair_value_reference": 62.475321, "structural_low": 60.97, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.070224, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.060085, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.132887, "worst_return": -0.175395, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.021145, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.017394, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.091882, "worst_return": -0.205322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.086207, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.058163, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.413043, "worst_return": -0.176382, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.054782, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05501, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039988, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06404, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.087477, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.231915, 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"2026-07-10", "close": 73.64, "volume": 1157603, "typical_volume": 1152875.1, "trend": 69.672333, "fair_value": 62.009167, "relative_strength": -3.82259, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.483686, "energy": 74.293942, "activity_lines": [ 76.488667, 73.620909, 70.618143, 70.28572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 72.75, "volume": 1030731, "typical_volume": 1139640.6, "trend": 69.961333, "fair_value": 62.125705, "relative_strength": -3.411953, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.871357, "energy": 60.036628, "activity_lines": [ 75.41, 73.931455, 70.97781, 70.48428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 72.48, "volume": 987947, "typical_volume": 1137094.15, "trend": 70.250333, "fair_value": 62.229167, "relative_strength": -3.075899, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.989546, "energy": 34.289291, "activity_lines": [ 74.204, 74.071818, 71.316095, 70.646774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 70.73, "volume": 1192878, "typical_volume": 1144748.85, "trend": 70.501, "fair_value": 62.348269, "relative_strength": -6.281849, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.545886, "energy": 21.091755, "activity_lines": [ 72.556667, 73.703455, 71.467857, 70.67772 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 72.9, "volume": 1122655, "typical_volume": 1131381.65, "trend": 70.529333, "fair_value": 62.475321, "relative_strength": -6.519786, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.463618, "energy": 20.849575, "activity_lines": [ 72.266667, 73.649636, 71.799095, 70.832495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }