{ "ticker": { "uuid": "830b65a7-2531-4851-8243-1f4f443680b0", "symbol": "ERG", "name": "Eneco Refresh Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 52.879, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 28.146, "architecture_energy": 63.576, "architecture_maturity": 8.937, "architecture_confidence": 71.733, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.67, "rotation_up": 70.13, "upward_expansion": 56.97, "deceleration": 17.85, "rotation_down": 14.21, "downward_expansion": 29.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0166, 0.015982, 0.015233, 0.015277 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.016, "trend_reference": 0.015433, "distance_from_trend": 0.036717, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.013628, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.174036, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.048083, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.063706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036717, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006522, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.174036, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.225929, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.000481, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095177, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.233926, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 54235, "relative_activity": 0.465364, "balance": 6.233926, "dry_up": 0.841602, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057692, "annualized_volatility": 0.918695, "from_high_reference": -0.333333, "from_low_reference": 0.333333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.015433, "fair_value_reference": 0.013628, "structural_low": 0.012, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.071429, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": -0.066046, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.210526, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.103947, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.088304, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.555556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.208333, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.285481, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.4, "worst_return": -0.644444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.526316, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.513387, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.444444, "worst_return": -0.555556, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.214286, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1875, "active": false }, { 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0.015041 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 0.015, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 172412.05, "trend": 0.0153, "fair_value": 0.013577, "relative_strength": 1.419579, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.112154, "energy": 23.531852, "activity_lines": [ 0.015, 0.014455, 0.014681, 0.015019 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.015, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 156662.05, "trend": 0.0153, "fair_value": 0.013596, "relative_strength": 0.156226, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.225389, "energy": 27.521707, "activity_lines": [ 0.015, 0.014636, 0.014667, 0.015 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.015, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 146161.8, "trend": 0.0153, "fair_value": 0.013609, "relative_strength": 0.245976, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.28345, "energy": 25.487198, "activity_lines": [ 0.015, 0.014782, 0.014662, 0.014981 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.015, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 130404.4, "trend": 0.0153, "fair_value": 0.013622, "relative_strength": -0.026948, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.630327, "energy": 25.607107, "activity_lines": [ 0.015, 0.014891, 0.014662, 0.014961 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.016, "volume": 115772, "typical_volume": 113215.25, "trend": 0.015333, "fair_value": 0.013641, "relative_strength": 6.407448, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 33.161317, "energy": 62.454028, "activity_lines": [ 0.015333, 0.015145, 0.014762, 0.015006 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.019, "volume": 222325, "typical_volume": 113831.5, "trend": 0.015467, "fair_value": 0.013641, "relative_strength": 22.791031, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 59.753599, "energy": 83.03462, "activity_lines": [ 0.0166, 0.015891, 0.015148, 0.015243 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.016, "volume": 54235, "typical_volume": 116543.25, "trend": 0.015433, "fair_value": 0.013628, "relative_strength": 0.048083, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.146418, "energy": 63.576146, "activity_lines": [ 0.0166, 0.015982, 0.015233, 0.015277 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }