{ "ticker": { "uuid": "830c2031-286f-426e-9635-9055d5c89ea5", "symbol": "NTGY", "name": "Naturgy Energy Group, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.208, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.551, "architecture_energy": 49.583, "architecture_maturity": 7.163, "architecture_confidence": 70.557, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.22, "rotation_up": 59.18, "upward_expansion": 78.91, "deceleration": 55.45, "rotation_down": 14.97, "downward_expansion": 7.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.779192, 28.442446, 28.233964, 27.697919 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 28.719999, "trend_reference": 26.97889, "distance_from_trend": 0.064536, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.255148, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.234995, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.744363, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.109232, "excess_performance": -0.015199, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.064536, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037958, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.234995, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058593, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067444, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002974, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.109232, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.055575, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8851706, "relative_activity": 0.904827, "balance": 1.055575, "dry_up": 1.348923, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039199, "annualized_volatility": 0.212558, "from_high_reference": -0.043304, "from_low_reference": 0.208744 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.97889, "fair_value_reference": 23.255148, "structural_low": 23.916654, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.006909, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.004022, "regime_survival": 0.71875, "best_return": 0.171466, "worst_return": -0.141435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.015902, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.015464, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.313806, "worst_return": -0.232169, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.030021, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.050673, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.333473, "worst_return": -0.084125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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-2.323675, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.348406, "energy": 32.564208, "activity_lines": [ 28.284875, 28.301857, 27.990203, 27.435048 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.940001, "volume": 10520587, "typical_volume": 10154211.2, "trend": 26.854631, "fair_value": 23.212601, "relative_strength": -4.483337, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.848462, "energy": 42.440002, "activity_lines": [ 28.621289, 28.385242, 28.132797, 27.577573 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.719999, "volume": 8851706, "typical_volume": 9782762.65, "trend": 26.97889, "fair_value": 23.255148, "relative_strength": -6.744363, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.551422, "energy": 49.582734, "activity_lines": [ 28.779192, 28.442446, 28.233964, 27.697919 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }