{ "ticker": { "uuid": "830e54d8-4ed9-4887-b97f-6f0dc550c839", "symbol": "QGL", "name": "Quantum Graphite Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.608, "architecture_energy": 78.58, "architecture_maturity": 21.773, "architecture_confidence": 86.147, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.83, "rotation_up": 9.41, "upward_expansion": 17.93, "deceleration": 37.09, "rotation_down": 74.71, "downward_expansion": 91.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.333333, 0.353364, 0.36975, 0.384145 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.32, "trend_reference": 0.398583, "distance_from_trend": -0.197157, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.491282, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.348643, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.926308, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.146667, "excess_performance": -0.210372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.197157, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02646, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.348643, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106928, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.269263, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137048, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.146667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.285243, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36711, "relative_activity": 0.337084, "balance": 0.285243, "dry_up": 0.963172, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105769, "annualized_volatility": 0.45297, "from_high_reference": -0.36, "from_low_reference": 0.04918 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.398583, "fair_value_reference": 0.491282, "structural_low": 0.305, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.010204, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": 0.007929, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.205128, "worst_return": -0.215909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.001657, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.112245, "worst_return": -0.111111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.017234, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.015193, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.08, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.072727, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030303, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.06, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.061224, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 0.375, "volume": 54944, "typical_volume": 165260.65, "trend": 0.39975, "fair_value": 0.497981, "relative_strength": -12.499225, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.754011, "energy": 16.075663, "activity_lines": [ 0.384, 0.382818, 0.392988, 0.40022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.385, "volume": 8406, "typical_volume": 147434.9, "trend": 0.400583, "fair_value": 0.496603, "relative_strength": -9.635719, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.073287, "energy": 19.872433, "activity_lines": [ 0.384333, 0.383273, 0.390976, 0.399269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.325, "volume": 275624, "typical_volume": 127707.8, "trend": 0.399917, "fair_value": 0.494776, "relative_strength": -22.945334, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.944946, "energy": 55.505263, "activity_lines": [ 0.365, 0.372818, 0.38356, 0.394392 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.32, "volume": 98846, "typical_volume": 112785.95, "trend": 0.398917, "fair_value": 0.493045, "relative_strength": -25.216111, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.87901, "energy": 74.191813, "activity_lines": [ 0.347, 0.362545, 0.37631, 0.389237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.32, "volume": 36711, "typical_volume": 108907.65, "trend": 0.398583, "fair_value": 0.491282, "relative_strength": -26.926308, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.607862, "energy": 78.579708, "activity_lines": [ 0.333333, 0.353364, 0.36975, 0.384145 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }