{ "ticker": { "uuid": "830f9b04-b80d-48ba-9048-418ee7ca03ef", "symbol": "GBF", "name": "ISHARES TRUST GOVERNMENT/CREDIT BD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 51.446, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.063, "architecture_energy": 64.34, "architecture_maturity": 4.697, "architecture_confidence": 88.401, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.55, "rotation_up": 10.25, "upward_expansion": 14.35, "deceleration": 37.41, "rotation_down": 70.57, "downward_expansion": 90.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 102.119583, 102.482458, 102.741309, 102.934219 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 102.299, "trend_reference": 103.198485, "distance_from_trend": -0.008716, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 98.487763, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.038698, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.638224, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.013341, "excess_performance": -0.138966, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008716, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001543, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.038698, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019637, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116382, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013297, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.013341, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.526171, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23950, "relative_activity": 0.622786, "balance": 0.526171, "dry_up": 1.248575, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008392, "annualized_volatility": 0.042687, "from_high_reference": -0.026307, "from_low_reference": 0.023356 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 103.198485, "fair_value_reference": 98.487763, 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"direction": -46.038744, "energy": 19.095309, "activity_lines": [ 103.060973, 103.033847, 103.093962, 103.235352 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 102.623399, "volume": 18188, "typical_volume": 35938.45, "trend": 103.334249, "fair_value": 98.299551, "relative_strength": -8.692123, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.096184, "energy": 28.890147, "activity_lines": [ 102.875904, 102.968642, 103.037063, 103.18826 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 101.875887, "volume": 87606, "typical_volume": 39272.65, "trend": 103.283522, "fair_value": 98.358619, "relative_strength": -8.575999, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.176638, "energy": 59.080542, "activity_lines": [ 102.479594, 102.780663, 102.920236, 103.094173 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 101.741335, "volume": 62318, "typical_volume": 38468.85, "trend": 103.236099, "fair_value": 98.419611, "relative_strength": -9.358901, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.290062, "energy": 70.023318, "activity_lines": [ 102.137217, 102.573755, 102.801247, 102.994677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 102.299, "volume": 23950, "typical_volume": 38456.25, "trend": 103.198485, "fair_value": 98.487763, "relative_strength": -11.638224, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.062829, "energy": 64.340287, "activity_lines": [ 102.119583, 102.482458, 102.741309, 102.934219 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }