{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8317b03c-9213-4144-8f33-a609f25be391", "symbol": "002630", "name": "China Western Power Industrial Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.167, "architecture_energy": 62.415, "architecture_maturity": 70.935, "architecture_confidence": 93.768, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.88, "rotation_up": 19.36, "upward_expansion": 12.83, "deceleration": 41.09, "rotation_down": 65.43, "downward_expansion": 90.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.654, 1.710909, 1.787619, 1.899785 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.65, "trend_reference": 2.078333, "distance_from_trend": -0.206095, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.706987, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.390466, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.012227, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.297872, "excess_performance": -0.305272, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.206095, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140119, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.390466, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108944, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.340122, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045878, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.297872, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.865866, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66054979, "relative_activity": 0.518733, "balance": 0.865866, "dry_up": 0.502781, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11049, "annualized_volatility": 0.533737, "from_high_reference": -0.542936, "from_low_reference": 0.044304 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.078333, "fair_value_reference": 2.706987, "structural_low": 1.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.047368, "positive_rate": 0.64, "directional_follow_through": 0.36, "median_excess_return": 0.039718, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.303644, "worst_return": -0.254902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.020992, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016611, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.510309, "worst_return": -0.170854, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.09417, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.032026, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.62844, "worst_return": -0.297872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018868, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.133028, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.200803, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.281977, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.303483, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", 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"relative_strength": -39.269702, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.07736, "energy": 43.848382, "activity_lines": [ 1.788, 1.810545, 1.898667, 2.027806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.72, "volume": 67288960, "typical_volume": 137602692.15, "trend": 2.173, "fair_value": 2.723654, "relative_strength": -30.848339, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.573174, "energy": 49.897438, "activity_lines": [ 1.754667, 1.788545, 1.870048, 1.996602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.64, "volume": 51916142, "typical_volume": 133836056.0, "trend": 2.141, "fair_value": 2.717885, "relative_strength": -33.523867, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.898083, "energy": 64.242944, "activity_lines": [ 1.702667, 1.756909, 1.838571, 1.962215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.63, "volume": 70834193, "typical_volume": 131815269.4, "trend": 2.106667, "fair_value": 2.712308, "relative_strength": -32.142067, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.463338, "energy": 68.530334, "activity_lines": [ 1.669333, 1.730364, 1.810476, 1.929247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.65, "volume": 66054979, "typical_volume": 127338953.25, "trend": 2.078333, "fair_value": 2.706987, "relative_strength": -34.012227, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.166663, "energy": 62.415224, "activity_lines": [ 1.654, 1.710909, 1.787619, 1.899785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }