{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8319c1e5-219d-41b3-85ac-367e6aa51f2f", "symbol": "SPX", "name": "Spirax Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 48.016, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 16.459, "architecture_energy": 18.958, "architecture_maturity": 17.441, "architecture_confidence": 46.966, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.72, "rotation_up": 54.01, "upward_expansion": 30.35, "deceleration": 37.99, "rotation_down": 18.92, "downward_expansion": 24.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 7133.0, 7002.545455, 7006.057606, 7043.013296 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 7500.0, "trend_reference": 7119.21709, "distance_from_trend": 0.053487, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7722.213085, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.028776, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.04814, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.013678, "excess_performance": -0.037557, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053487, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00419, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.028776, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045429, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020481, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049369, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.013678, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.076064, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1578396, "relative_activity": 2.087882, "balance": 1.076064, "dry_up": 1.305691, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056359, "annualized_volatility": 0.319635, "from_high_reference": -0.068172, "from_low_reference": 0.260504 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7119.21709, "fair_value_reference": 7722.213085, "structural_low": 5950.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.004976, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.026368, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.183871, "worst_return": -0.142341, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.009423, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.036792, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.130728, "worst_return": -0.226767, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.1936, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.192365, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.15573, "worst_return": -0.294817, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"volume": 1578396, "typical_volume": 755979.5, "trend": 7119.21709, "fair_value": 7722.213085, "relative_strength": -2.04814, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.458608, "energy": 18.95807, "activity_lines": [ 7133.0, 7002.545455, 7006.057606, 7043.013296 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }