{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "831e6eac-e32b-4e11-8329-6f2a81dbfaec",
    "symbol": "XVG",
    "name": "Aedge Group Limited",
    "exchange": "SES",
    "country": "SG",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^STI",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 63.183,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -48.361,
    "architecture_energy": 81.689,
    "architecture_maturity": 21.543,
    "architecture_confidence": 67.053,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 18.82,
        "rotation_up": 16.0,
        "upward_expansion": 28.0,
        "deceleration": 43.0,
        "rotation_down": 78.75,
        "downward_expansion": 69.67
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.224,
        0.242909,
        0.260429,
        0.267276
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 0.22,
    "trend_reference": 0.264833,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.169289,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 0.193472,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.137116,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -18.61588,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.081969,
    "excess_performance": -0.072866,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.169289,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.111967,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.137116,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.35656,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.186159,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.433532,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.081969,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 31.275799,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 3384100,
      "relative_activity": 18.605201,
      "balance": 31.275799,
      "dry_up": 4.816235,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.064685,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.626527,
      "from_high_reference": -0.435897,
      "from_low_reference": 0.294118
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.264833,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.193472,
      "structural_low": 0.2,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.0,
        "positive_rate": 0.363636,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.181818,
        "median_excess_return": 0.003968,
        "regime_survival": 0.545455,
        "best_return": 0.129628,
        "worst_return": -0.094336,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.019606,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.2,
        "median_excess_return": 0.021138,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.307691,
        "worst_return": -0.07547,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.020004,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.010085,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.730773,
        "worst_return": 0.0,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.030522,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.062518,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.117647,
        "worst_return": -0.056604,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-02",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.039212,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-01",
        "end": "2025-09-05",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.037738,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-09-12",
        "end": "2025-10-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-10-17",
        "end": "2025-10-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-07",
        "end": "2025-11-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-11-14",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.019229,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2025-12-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-12-12",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.038464,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-01-16",
        "end": "2026-01-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.051724,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-02-06",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.377051,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-07-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.035714,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-07-17",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.043478,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
      {
        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 0.19,
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        "typical_volume": 5250.0,
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        "relative_strength": 8.001104,
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        "date": "2023-08-25",
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 36.200977,
        "energy": 21.772094,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 0.28,
        "volume": 3200,
        "typical_volume": 84195.0,
        "trend": 0.238166,
        "fair_value": 0.189348,
        "relative_strength": 19.898475,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 35.536183,
        "energy": 22.043607,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.282667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 0.28,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 81847.5,
        "trend": 0.241278,
        "fair_value": 0.189925,
        "relative_strength": 19.007079,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 24.937358,
        "energy": 18.151583,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.281667,
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          0.285421,
          0.267688
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 0.28,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 78450.0,
        "trend": 0.244833,
        "fair_value": 0.19048,
        "relative_strength": 18.97758,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 21.424615,
        "energy": 13.980697,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.280667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "volume": 1000,
        "typical_volume": 76647.5,
        "trend": 0.248278,
        "fair_value": 0.191036,
        "relative_strength": 14.675643,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 20.558506,
        "energy": 13.50505,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.279667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 0.28,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 76647.5,
        "trend": 0.251833,
        "fair_value": 0.191592,
        "relative_strength": 14.180144,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 19.068768,
        "energy": 16.910308,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.28,
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          0.286127,
          0.274502
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 0.28,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 40137.5,
        "trend": 0.255389,
        "fair_value": 0.192147,
        "relative_strength": 12.530192,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 18.76217,
        "energy": 37.595423,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.28,
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          0.285627,
          0.276319
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 0.27,
        "volume": 5000,
        "typical_volume": 35887.5,
        "trend": 0.258611,
        "fair_value": 0.192639,
        "relative_strength": 3.720188,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -6.875228,
        "energy": 19.559791,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.276667,
          0.278636,
          0.283921,
          0.277262
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 0.23,
        "volume": 90000,
        "typical_volume": 33765.0,
        "trend": 0.260389,
        "fair_value": 0.192895,
        "relative_strength": -12.330897,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -35.22942,
        "energy": 64.297128,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.260667,
          0.269455,
          0.278405,
          0.275416
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 0.23,
        "volume": 20000,
        "typical_volume": 24085.0,
        "trend": 0.262278,
        "fair_value": 0.193151,
        "relative_strength": -13.558227,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -63.826341,
        "energy": 85.906213,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.248,
          0.261182,
          0.273159,
          0.273455
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.21,
        "volume": 10000,
        "typical_volume": 18592.5,
        "trend": 0.2635,
        "fair_value": 0.19328,
        "relative_strength": -21.472457,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -66.62347,
        "energy": 87.955622,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.232,
          0.250545,
          0.266167,
          0.270082
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.22,
        "volume": 3384100,
        "typical_volume": 181890.0,
        "trend": 0.264833,
        "fair_value": 0.193472,
        "relative_strength": -18.61588,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -48.361066,
        "energy": 81.688602,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.224,
          0.242909,
          0.260429,
          0.267276
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}