{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8321b305-0e55-419c-9051-ada51e2a56b7", "symbol": "HINDOILEXP", "name": "Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 57.693, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 16.3, "architecture_energy": 8.9, "architecture_maturity": 29.636, "architecture_confidence": 83.321, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.16, "rotation_up": 27.69, "upward_expansion": 49.53, "deceleration": 77.73, "rotation_down": 26.96, "downward_expansion": 27.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 158.315332, 159.114727, 160.242524, 156.643141 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 155.740005, "trend_reference": 152.746335, "distance_from_trend": 0.019599, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 179.407308, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.131919, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.648858, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.001093, "excess_performance": 0.044802, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019599, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024133, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.131919, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027731, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.006489, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068577, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001093, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.905367, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1370087, "relative_activity": 0.285715, "balance": 0.905367, "dry_up": 0.567485, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067795, "annualized_volatility": 0.539756, "from_high_reference": -0.153587, "from_low_reference": 0.325447 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 152.746335, "fair_value_reference": 179.407308, "structural_low": 117.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.014011, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.001688, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.129076, "worst_return": -0.171486, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.051061, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.059041, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.109882, "worst_return": -0.189823, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.047398, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.014718, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.206933, "worst_return": -0.255677, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.18688, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06621, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005894, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.157116, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.047345, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.15058, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.064358, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020099, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00435, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013339, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 170.800003, "volume": 25490623, "typical_volume": 5672622.05, "trend": 170.611665, "fair_value": 147.846474, "relative_strength": 1.376793, "stage": 2, "regime": 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.291372, "energy": 19.625237, "activity_lines": [ 157.058668, 160.545819, 158.894049, 155.22998 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 162.039993, "volume": 3849738, "typical_volume": 6004265.05, "trend": 152.414335, "fair_value": 180.452308, "relative_strength": 8.199203, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.994362, "energy": 18.519597, "activity_lines": [ 158.259332, 160.371818, 159.610953, 155.866496 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 161.289993, "volume": 1926752, "typical_volume": 5211318.05, "trend": 152.577668, "fair_value": 180.031731, "relative_strength": 4.985417, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.761256, "energy": 13.595921, "activity_lines": [ 159.252663, 160.191453, 160.229905, 156.439119 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 155.740005, "volume": 1370087, "typical_volume": 4795297.9, "trend": 152.746335, "fair_value": 179.407308, "relative_strength": 0.648858, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.300403, "energy": 8.899717, "activity_lines": [ 158.315332, 159.114727, 160.242524, 156.643141 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }