{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8326476b-524e-4c8b-9673-f168ba97dac6", "symbol": "HAB2", "name": "Hamborner REIT AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 65.669, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.541, "architecture_energy": 54.28, "architecture_maturity": 11.341, "architecture_confidence": 83.408, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.05, "rotation_up": 11.99, "upward_expansion": 9.66, "deceleration": 41.8, "rotation_down": 67.91, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.408667, 4.438909, 4.493941, 4.515832 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.37, "trend_reference": 4.560481, "distance_from_trend": -0.041768, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.482509, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.20292, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.368039, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.091476, "excess_performance": -0.265723, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041768, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004547, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.20292, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029213, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.26368, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013739, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.091476, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 900, "relative_activity": 20.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 5.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028258, "annualized_volatility": 0.171288, "from_high_reference": -0.260575, "from_low_reference": 0.094618 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.560481, "fair_value_reference": 5.482509, "structural_low": 3.99226, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.009423, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.019719, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.083591, "worst_return": -0.130864, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.016886, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.069815, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.075321, "worst_return": -0.134703, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.01742, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.156423, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.073908, "worst_return": -0.256572, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015015, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013825, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017939, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00846, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018998, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035907, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.121905, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038207, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021277, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.648285, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 38.15, "trend": 5.815736, "fair_value": 6.642394, "relative_strength": -2.446265, "stage": 4, "regime": 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"typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 4.566147, "fair_value": 5.506372, "relative_strength": -24.18806, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.449653, "energy": 54.59363, "activity_lines": [ 4.460333, 4.516241, 4.523742, 4.547656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.415, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 4.566647, "fair_value": 5.498467, "relative_strength": -25.230356, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.017765, "energy": 55.86504, "activity_lines": [ 4.445, 4.488981, 4.51415, 4.537905 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.42, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 4.565481, "fair_value": 5.490704, "relative_strength": -24.240339, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.874688, "energy": 51.688467, "activity_lines": [ 4.433667, 4.466009, 4.505891, 4.528444 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.37, "volume": 900, "typical_volume": 45.0, "trend": 4.560481, "fair_value": 5.482509, "relative_strength": -26.368039, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.541295, "energy": 54.280113, "activity_lines": [ 4.408667, 4.438909, 4.493941, 4.515832 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }