{ "ticker": { "uuid": "833a7824-10aa-4127-bd79-e60541930c4a", "symbol": "EAM", "name": "EAM Solar ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 79.367, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.367, "architecture_energy": 46.831, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.5, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.05, "rotation_up": 16.03, "upward_expansion": 8.24, "deceleration": 43.01, "rotation_down": 60.36, "downward_expansion": 83.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.689733, 0.841846, 1.272244, 1.42452 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.658, "trend_reference": 1.599832, "distance_from_trend": -0.588707, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.919729, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.939742, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -58.769918, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.713913, "excess_performance": -0.838907, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.588707, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047257, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.939742, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105598, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.587699, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005593, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.713913, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.138337, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8431828, "relative_activity": 1.280541, "balance": 1.138337, "dry_up": 2.19455, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 1.444008, "annualized_volatility": 3.491843, "from_high_reference": -0.878598, "from_low_reference": 0.209559 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.599832, "fair_value_reference": 10.919729, "structural_low": 0.544, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.004211, "positive_rate": 0.419355, "directional_follow_through": 0.580645, "median_excess_return": -0.047293, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 5.776318, "worst_return": -0.714588, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.021843, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.044355, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 7.251121, "worst_return": -0.829474, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.084249, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.111036, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 2.67, "worst_return": -0.839395, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.525958, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.769781, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.206437, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.302632, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.404095, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", 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0.888267, 1.213416, 1.546516, 1.608669 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.684, "volume": 29331657, "typical_volume": 6069048.9, "trend": 1.619236, "fair_value": 11.073818, "relative_strength": -58.039651, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.761237, "energy": 53.903409, "activity_lines": [ 0.7996, 1.069729, 1.45419, 1.547777 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.66, "volume": 11864374, "typical_volume": 6525042.75, "trend": 1.609236, "fair_value": 11.018071, "relative_strength": -59.135997, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.585265, "energy": 52.69535, "activity_lines": [ 0.742, 0.94306, 1.362315, 1.48589 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.658, "volume": 8431828, "typical_volume": 6584581.3, "trend": 1.599832, "fair_value": 10.919729, "relative_strength": -58.769918, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.367085, "energy": 46.830773, "activity_lines": [ 0.689733, 0.841846, 1.272244, 1.42452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }