{ "ticker": { "uuid": "833b310f-1650-42b6-8a71-a845354308ee", "symbol": "FREP", "name": "Franklin MSCI Emerging Markets Paris Aligned Climate UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 56.59, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 13.196, "architecture_energy": 20.341, "architecture_maturity": 64.763, "architecture_confidence": 80.637, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.72, "rotation_up": 17.29, "upward_expansion": 46.11, "deceleration": 87.97, "rotation_down": 36.98, "downward_expansion": 26.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.015667, 37.543091, 37.543381, 36.788495 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 37.470001, "trend_reference": 35.786834, "distance_from_trend": 0.047033, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.821859, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.346783, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.514839, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.119009, "excess_performance": -0.051883, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.047033, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067637, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.346783, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091527, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.035148, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13426, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.119009, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.083113, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 641, "relative_activity": 0.432334, "balance": 0.083113, "dry_up": 2.173642, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035372, "annualized_volatility": 0.239353, "from_high_reference": -0.086098, "from_low_reference": 0.351976 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.786834, "fair_value_reference": 27.821859, "structural_low": 32.014999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.046806, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 9.5e-05, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.105821, "worst_return": -0.069311, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.069685, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.0042, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.185993, "worst_return": -0.098065, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.113911, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.03357, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.204527, "worst_return": 0.023295, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.25155, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.011271, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.25155, "worst_return": 0.25155, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005636, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018249, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021083, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025574, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046032, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043153, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022527, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004349, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.112214, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025384, "active": false }, { "regime": 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4, "typical_volume": 1068.35, "trend": 35.4775, "fair_value": 27.651955, "relative_strength": -1.086625, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.608486, "energy": 24.396969, "activity_lines": [ 37.586334, 38.047091, 37.512024, 36.634527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.014999, "volume": 7736, "typical_volume": 1454.95, "trend": 35.621, "fair_value": 27.732244, "relative_strength": -4.436387, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.772069, "energy": 19.326822, "activity_lines": [ 36.972, 37.647636, 37.465405, 36.669204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.470001, "volume": 641, "typical_volume": 1482.65, "trend": 35.786834, "fair_value": 27.821859, "relative_strength": -3.514839, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.196041, "energy": 20.341069, "activity_lines": [ 37.015667, 37.543091, 37.543381, 36.788495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }