{ "ticker": { "uuid": "83442f40-9677-46b2-babb-16ad5a5f1755", "symbol": "603986", "name": "GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 14.685, "architecture_energy": 29.135, "architecture_maturity": 65.552, "architecture_confidence": 73.497, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.2, "rotation_up": 18.21, "upward_expansion": 55.28, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 47.25, "downward_expansion": 23.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 433.929997, 508.268, 485.604706, 440.455388 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 417.049988, "trend_reference": 385.480759, "distance_from_trend": 0.081896, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 165.919242, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.513572, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 39.054171, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.326402, "excess_performance": 0.369606, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081896, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.395372, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.513572, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012642, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.390542, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125652, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.326402, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.693979, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 335006087, "relative_activity": 1.615141, "balance": 0.693979, "dry_up": 1.622486, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.246365, "annualized_volatility": 0.886141, "from_high_reference": -0.464634, "from_low_reference": 2.591208 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 385.480759, "fair_value_reference": 165.919242, "structural_low": 236.51546, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.024594, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.027408, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.574538, "worst_return": -0.13108, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.207885, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.122176, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.981217, "worst_return": -0.051991, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.630169, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.487896, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.407443, "worst_return": -0.031159, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": 63.081222, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.558489, "energy": 33.77249, "activity_lines": [ 539.942668, 562.467241, 490.875887, 437.662189 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 378.600006, "volume": 380472955, "typical_volume": 200155419.95, "trend": 378.710371, "fair_value": 163.962457, "relative_strength": 32.220751, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.141319, "energy": 25.907902, "activity_lines": [ 467.481335, 531.058912, 486.649047, 437.981864 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 417.049988, "volume": 335006087, "typical_volume": 207416063.7, "trend": 385.480759, "fair_value": 165.919242, "relative_strength": 39.054171, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.685008, "energy": 29.134893, "activity_lines": [ 433.929997, 508.268, 485.604706, 440.455388 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }