{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8346db83-0055-4ef3-bbbe-02d51192ed14", "symbol": "688005", "name": "Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.908, "architecture_energy": 59.128, "architecture_maturity": 16.977, "architecture_confidence": 88.019, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.91, "rotation_up": 13.79, "upward_expansion": 11.71, "deceleration": 40.91, "rotation_down": 64.63, "downward_expansion": 85.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.8, 27.491636, 29.688524, 30.332538 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 27.75, "trend_reference": 31.257667, "distance_from_trend": -0.112218, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.41236, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.136719, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.70577, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.094617, "excess_performance": -0.051413, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.112218, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016962, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.136719, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.424454, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067058, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.367024, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.094617, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.464715, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 68592523, "relative_activity": 0.688587, "balance": 0.464715, "dry_up": 0.783491, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114234, "annualized_volatility": 0.523711, "from_high_reference": -0.319853, "from_low_reference": 0.371047 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.257667, "fair_value_reference": 24.41236, "structural_low": 23.799999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.025409, "positive_rate": 0.366667, "directional_follow_through": 0.633333, "median_excess_return": -0.02841, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.365926, "worst_return": -0.207417, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.139983, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.122698, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.337794, "worst_return": -0.263626, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.192816, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.213524, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.505834, "worst_return": -0.356281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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31.547285, 31.733161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.98, "volume": 73725542, "typical_volume": 102872480.8, "trend": 31.823, "fair_value": 24.537067, "relative_strength": -15.177115, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.770335, "energy": 78.845617, "activity_lines": [ 26.783333, 28.895818, 30.819238, 31.219742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.6, "volume": 93009592, "typical_volume": 102832968.5, "trend": 31.716, "fair_value": 24.477417, "relative_strength": -10.719121, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.929315, "energy": 75.54215, "activity_lines": [ 25.943333, 28.0, 30.282476, 30.818258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.950001, "volume": 76857585, "typical_volume": 101269906.0, "trend": 31.512667, "fair_value": 24.439357, "relative_strength": -3.186168, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.581938, "energy": 69.978417, "activity_lines": [ 26.365334, 27.700727, 29.987048, 30.57529 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.75, "volume": 68592523, "typical_volume": 99613495.2, "trend": 31.257667, "fair_value": 24.41236, "relative_strength": -6.70577, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.907836, "energy": 59.127764, "activity_lines": [ 26.8, 27.491636, 29.688524, 30.332538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }