{ "ticker": { "uuid": "834afe57-bb0c-45e0-8998-10dbdec39709", "symbol": "IPAV", "name": "GLOBAL X INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT EX-U.S. ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.235, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -11.049, "architecture_energy": 24.713, "architecture_maturity": 7.24, "architecture_confidence": 51.527, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.02, "rotation_up": 21.0, "upward_expansion": 20.52, "deceleration": 53.57, "rotation_down": 55.27, "downward_expansion": 47.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.74906, 31.850993, 32.360045, 32.284096 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 32.6588, "trend_reference": 32.160465, "distance_from_trend": 0.015495, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.655944, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.180896, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.809372, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.000866, "excess_performance": -0.126491, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015495, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032905, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.180896, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115416, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.048094, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113814, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000866, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.291, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19412, "relative_activity": 2.770313, "balance": 1.291, "dry_up": 1.028949, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032425, "annualized_volatility": 0.239517, "from_high_reference": -0.070918, "from_low_reference": 0.197603 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.160465, "fair_value_reference": 27.655944, "structural_low": 29.0302, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.067242, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.136131, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014997, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06052, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 31.2294, "volume": 2320, "typical_volume": 6822.85, "trend": 31.970656, "fair_value": 27.532956, "relative_strength": -5.506012, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.407807, "energy": 33.10409, "activity_lines": [ 31.714108, 32.209793, 32.498575, 32.343982 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.16, "volume": 5224, "typical_volume": 6573.6, "trend": 32.026348, "fair_value": 27.569227, "relative_strength": -5.081833, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.24826, "energy": 49.737209, "activity_lines": [ 31.431965, 31.950216, 32.401683, 32.291681 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.3248, "volume": 1884, "typical_volume": 6229.85, "trend": 32.074818, "fair_value": 27.606411, "relative_strength": -5.554069, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.030075, "energy": 49.951719, "activity_lines": [ 31.3435, 31.761738, 32.320411, 32.24642 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.6588, "volume": 19412, "typical_volume": 7007.15, "trend": 32.160465, "fair_value": 27.655944, "relative_strength": -4.809372, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.049415, "energy": 24.712695, "activity_lines": [ 31.74906, 31.850993, 32.360045, 32.284096 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }