{ "ticker": { "uuid": "83526301-dc5c-4416-b79e-471c61b27b43", "symbol": "002573", "name": "Beijing SPC Environment Protection Tech Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.868, "architecture_energy": 37.888, "architecture_maturity": 96.986, "architecture_confidence": 88.952, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.23, "rotation_up": 27.47, "upward_expansion": 18.54, "deceleration": 46.9, "rotation_down": 35.62, "downward_expansion": 66.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.176667, 3.152545, 3.259524, 3.390516 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.2, "trend_reference": 3.555, "distance_from_trend": -0.099859, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.072311, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.214205, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.266683, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.164491, "excess_performance": -0.171891, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.099859, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06472, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.214205, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077776, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.172667, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067765, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.164491, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.522902, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37831489, "relative_activity": 0.932228, "balance": 0.522902, "dry_up": 1.069678, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050481, "annualized_volatility": 0.251002, "from_high_reference": -0.248826, "from_low_reference": 0.073826 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.555, "fair_value_reference": 4.072311, "structural_low": 2.98, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.005146, "positive_rate": 0.484848, "directional_follow_through": 0.515152, "median_excess_return": -0.000388, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.182099, "worst_return": -0.15, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.007341, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013203, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.137741, "worst_return": -0.165948, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.003663, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.049617, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.110193, "worst_return": -0.301478, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 4.100134, "relative_strength": -18.075391, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.659032, "energy": 57.250185, "activity_lines": [ 3.112667, 3.147273, 3.301667, 3.438559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.22, "volume": 46135642, "typical_volume": 41770319.25, "trend": 3.573, "fair_value": 4.086318, "relative_strength": -13.150937, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.358479, "energy": 45.920623, "activity_lines": [ 3.156, 3.15, 3.279429, 3.414581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.2, "volume": 37831489, "typical_volume": 40581800.7, "trend": 3.555, "fair_value": 4.072311, "relative_strength": -17.266683, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.867973, "energy": 37.888321, "activity_lines": [ 3.176667, 3.152545, 3.259524, 3.390516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }