{ "ticker": { "uuid": "835263d0-a87c-4cc7-94c8-392095ee3d49", "symbol": "TMV", "name": "DIREXION DAILY 20+ YEAR TREASURY BEAR 3X ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.867, "architecture_energy": 76.124, "architecture_maturity": 12.714, "architecture_confidence": 71.979, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.9, "rotation_up": 80.01, "upward_expansion": 95.16, "deceleration": 39.05, "rotation_down": 8.67, "downward_expansion": 17.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.563333, 40.118922, 39.240728, 38.584386 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 41.79, "trend_reference": 37.68529, "distance_from_trend": 0.108921, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.231391, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.186158, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.78527, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.150019, "excess_performance": 0.024395, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.108921, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034368, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.186158, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090346, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.017853, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10444, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.150019, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.910517, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4789879, "relative_activity": 1.426397, "balance": 0.910517, "dry_up": 1.048527, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05311, "annualized_volatility": 0.284111, "from_high_reference": -0.039642, "from_low_reference": 0.330605 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.68529, "fair_value_reference": 35.231391, "structural_low": 32.674961, "invalidation": "A 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"balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.792016, "energy": 20.776772, "activity_lines": [ 37.840797, 38.011512, 37.951392, 37.501733 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.53, "volume": 2248461, "typical_volume": 3564291.7, "trend": 37.112821, "fair_value": 35.017106, "relative_strength": -0.231473, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.285212, "energy": 29.000826, "activity_lines": [ 38.500212, 38.241507, 38.139368, 37.664707 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.4, "volume": 2129096, "typical_volume": 3390546.9, "trend": 37.291439, "fair_value": 35.098103, "relative_strength": 5.294269, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.250789, "energy": 63.686173, "activity_lines": [ 39.670667, 38.776, 38.473362, 37.941299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.96, "volume": 4916491, "typical_volume": 3372287.75, "trend": 37.490702, "fair_value": 35.172117, "relative_strength": 8.129363, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.009963, "energy": 78.407713, "activity_lines": [ 41.046, 39.584783, 38.92579, 38.307012 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.79, "volume": 4789879, "typical_volume": 3358026.6, "trend": 37.68529, "fair_value": 35.231391, "relative_strength": 1.78527, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.867233, "energy": 76.123573, "activity_lines": [ 41.563333, 40.118922, 39.240728, 38.584386 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }