{ "ticker": { "uuid": "83537c0c-9a50-4179-8cfc-8febf4ee6f6e", "symbol": "ASRW", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy MSCI World ESG Filtered Min TE UCITS ETF", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.302, "architecture_energy": 66.852, "architecture_maturity": 51.347, "architecture_confidence": 78.8, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.81, "rotation_up": 57.21, "upward_expansion": 81.78, "deceleration": 64.49, "rotation_down": 26.41, "downward_expansion": 10.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.142934, 19.024109, 18.816009, 18.472155 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.648001, "trend_reference": 18.091067, "distance_from_trend": 0.086061, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.788591, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.244443, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.662148, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.119417, "excess_performance": 0.054777, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086061, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035977, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.244443, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039235, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.036621, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064282, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.119417, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.218945, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15503, "relative_activity": 1.004979, "balance": 1.218945, "dry_up": 1.940854, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017281, "annualized_volatility": 0.133936, "from_high_reference": -0.001118, "from_low_reference": 0.233706 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.091067, "fair_value_reference": 15.788591, "structural_low": 16.228001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.005245, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.00509, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.020058, "worst_return": -0.079376, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.047205, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.031545, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.096857, "worst_return": -0.002448, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.094172, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.063754, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.094172, "worst_return": 0.094172, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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18.622581, 18.308086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.882, "volume": 13996, "typical_volume": 14925.05, "trend": 18.020667, "fair_value": 15.754737, "relative_strength": 2.540448, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.872118, "energy": 51.497844, "activity_lines": [ 18.906133, 18.883927, 18.687685, 18.367165 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.648001, "volume": 15503, "typical_volume": 15426.2, "trend": 18.091067, "fair_value": 15.788591, "relative_strength": 3.662148, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.301603, "energy": 66.85247, "activity_lines": [ 19.142934, 19.024109, 18.816009, 18.472155 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }