{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "83642976-db6b-45b7-91d0-adf7d1df9945",
    "symbol": "BC",
    "name": "Brunello Cucinelli S.p.A.",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch",
    "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch",
    "confidence": 74.66,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 68.261,
    "architecture_energy": 60.995,
    "architecture_maturity": 36.338,
    "architecture_confidence": 74.234,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 38.3,
        "rotation_up": 60.17,
        "upward_expansion": 81.52,
        "deceleration": 51.15,
        "rotation_down": 14.46,
        "downward_expansion": 15.19
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        86.244001,
        84.624364,
        83.668753,
        82.410283
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 90.0,
    "trend_reference": 81.50512,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.104225,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 90.759153,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.008364,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -10.964314,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.100541,
    "excess_performance": -0.070351,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.104225,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.036016,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.008364,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.060506,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.109643,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.083696,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.100541,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.353151,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2273788,
      "relative_activity": 1.937554,
      "balance": 2.353151,
      "dry_up": 1.412386,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.054891,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.315576,
      "from_high_reference": -0.146759,
      "from_low_reference": 0.320905
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 81.50512,
      "fair_value_reference": 90.759153,
      "structural_low": 68.135125,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 16,
        "median_return": 0.001927,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.026806,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.182283,
        "worst_return": -0.125237,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.071062,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": 0.052952,
        "regime_survival": 0.285714,
        "best_return": 0.283982,
        "worst_return": -0.276962,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.016402,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.015002,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.214422,
        "worst_return": -0.15012,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.176418,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.009977,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.536887,
        "worst_return": 0.035309,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-10-18",
        "end": "2024-11-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.045977,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-12-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.182283,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-12-20",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.053333,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.124837,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.168495,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-06-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.03741,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-06-27",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.047156,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.102783,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.003937,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.015092,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2026-01-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.099218,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "return": 0.071062,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "trend": 84.688118,
        "fair_value": 90.281523,
        "relative_strength": -19.863763,
        "stage": 4,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "relative_strength": -19.772368,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 1596658.45,
        "trend": 84.463305,
        "fair_value": 90.313344,
        "relative_strength": -18.45571,
        "stage": 4,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 85.419998,
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        "trend": 84.335938,
        "fair_value": 90.330062,
        "relative_strength": -17.99756,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "fair_value": 90.393506,
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        "energy": 11.793867,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 1235217.9,
        "trend": 83.095911,
        "fair_value": 90.434491,
        "relative_strength": -21.444017,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
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        "energy": 11.104054,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 82.300003,
        "volume": 1301353,
        "typical_volume": 1209839.35,
        "trend": 82.547001,
        "fair_value": 90.483113,
        "relative_strength": -17.566324,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -17.350644,
        "energy": 12.901188,
        "activity_lines": [
          81.888,
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          81.981374,
          81.52431
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 81.580002,
        "volume": 942385,
        "typical_volume": 1144708.35,
        "trend": 82.023779,
        "fair_value": 90.537686,
        "relative_strength": -17.43065,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -1.28304,
        "energy": 6.527969,
        "activity_lines": [
          81.644001,
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          82.110923,
          81.461923
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 88.5,
        "volume": 2112413,
        "typical_volume": 1165368.95,
        "trend": 81.776633,
        "fair_value": 90.643456,
        "relative_strength": -10.42337,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.157629,
        "energy": 36.376619,
        "activity_lines": [
          83.913334,
          83.396364,
          82.863794,
          81.879743
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 90.0,
        "volume": 2273788,
        "typical_volume": 1173535.3,
        "trend": 81.50512,
        "fair_value": 90.759153,
        "relative_strength": -10.964314,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.261267,
        "energy": 60.994985,
        "activity_lines": [
          86.244001,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}