{ "ticker": { "uuid": "83665e9f-5d39-4e90-a8a6-5f602824385c", "symbol": "HUMA", "name": "Humacyte Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.875, "architecture_energy": 46.727, "architecture_maturity": 22.338, "architecture_confidence": 87.05, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.17, "rotation_up": 13.02, "upward_expansion": 7.13, "deceleration": 44.94, "rotation_down": 65.12, "downward_expansion": 82.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.673473, 0.718067, 0.82477, 0.853032 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.7182, "trend_reference": 0.902523, "distance_from_trend": -0.204231, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.000646, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.760652, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.723739, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.234573, "excess_performance": -0.422027, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.204231, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125685, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.760652, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091585, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.457237, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024243, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.234573, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.486685, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12467624, "relative_activity": 0.297513, "balance": 0.486685, "dry_up": 0.520136, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.306375, "annualized_volatility": 1.036102, "from_high_reference": -0.718353, "from_low_reference": 0.31322 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.902523, "fair_value_reference": 3.000646, "structural_low": 0.5469, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.061245, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": -0.14307, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 1.038168, "worst_return": -0.563107, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.13986, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.226901, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.216216, "worst_return": -0.42711, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.347357, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.499993, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.622807, "worst_return": -0.536711, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.230268, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.088061, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.20614, "worst_return": -0.745605, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.332326, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021277, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.506641, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.361212, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010638, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053309, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.149105, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.522234, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085837, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.132222, "energy": 67.24722, "activity_lines": [ 0.666167, 0.7917, 0.855949, 0.883631 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.6534, "volume": 15752524, "typical_volume": 46043959.7, "trend": 0.917583, "fair_value": 3.017003, "relative_strength": -49.86496, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.902018, "energy": 60.28704, "activity_lines": [ 0.65718, 0.745387, 0.836068, 0.865896 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.7182, "volume": 12467624, "typical_volume": 41906138.15, "trend": 0.902523, "fair_value": 3.000646, "relative_strength": -45.723739, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.875253, "energy": 46.726819, "activity_lines": [ 0.673473, 0.718067, 0.82477, 0.853032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }