{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8374d4f8-4d8c-40ca-987e-f6c7a99a6fbd", "symbol": "SAPPE", "name": "Sappe Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.426, "architecture_energy": 60.129, "architecture_maturity": 21.448, "architecture_confidence": 59.757, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.69, "rotation_up": 73.43, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 53.45, "rotation_down": 12.31, "downward_expansion": 9.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.05, 33.3, 31.854514, 31.195406 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 34.25, "trend_reference": 30.632333, "distance_from_trend": 0.1181, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 52.096271, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.342563, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.161802, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.161017, "excess_performance": -0.031308, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.1181, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02366, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.342563, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.126875, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051618, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.132002, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.161017, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.940827, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1864200, "relative_activity": 1.459365, "balance": 0.940827, "dry_up": 2.1848, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048287, "annualized_volatility": 0.336956, "from_high_reference": -0.087251, "from_low_reference": 0.273045 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.632333, "fair_value_reference": 52.096271, "structural_low": 26.904, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.017678, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.00653, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.442207, "worst_return": -0.102703, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.046243, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.006169, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.532476, "worst_return": -0.325123, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.141202, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.096156, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.598755, "worst_return": -0.2656, "sufficient": true }, { 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"stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.344904, "energy": 84.932865, "activity_lines": [ 33.316667, 32.286364, 31.058771, 30.668693 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.75, "volume": 1388400, "typical_volume": 1245980.0, "trend": 30.513333, "fair_value": 52.384092, "relative_strength": -5.018465, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.588149, "energy": 79.845052, "activity_lines": [ 33.866667, 32.890909, 31.497448, 30.954331 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.25, "volume": 1864200, "typical_volume": 1277405.0, "trend": 30.632333, "fair_value": 52.096271, "relative_strength": -5.161802, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.426277, "energy": 60.128576, "activity_lines": [ 34.05, 33.3, 31.854514, 31.195406 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }