{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "83797b84-36aa-46a3-a55d-50b60a052e69",
    "symbol": "KWS",
    "name": "KWS SAAT SE & Co. KGaA",
    "exchange": "VIE",
    "country": "AT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^ATX",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch",
    "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 38.533,
    "architecture_energy": 29.52,
    "architecture_maturity": 8.683,
    "architecture_confidence": 55.865,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.",
        "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 44.09,
        "rotation_up": 56.53,
        "upward_expansion": 68.11,
        "deceleration": 51.97,
        "rotation_down": 9.13,
        "downward_expansion": 9.11
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        72.486664,
        71.696362,
        71.983809,
        71.547741
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 71.699997,
    "trend_reference": 71.093333,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.008533,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 59.751858,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.199963,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -15.126618,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.002782,
    "excess_performance": -0.177028,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.008533,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.014989,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.199963,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.134922,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.151266,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.154813,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.002782,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.0,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 149,
      "relative_activity": 1.728538,
      "balance": 0.0,
      "dry_up": 0.432135,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.033795,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.267352,
      "from_high_reference": -0.100376,
      "from_low_reference": 0.185564
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 71.093333,
      "fair_value_reference": 59.751858,
      "structural_low": 62.700001,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.01208,
        "positive_rate": 0.636364,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.636364,
        "median_excess_return": -0.011749,
        "regime_survival": 0.272727,
        "best_return": 0.088235,
        "worst_return": -0.132479,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
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        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.075183,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.088889,
        "worst_return": -0.148148,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.001036,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": 0.033017,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
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        "worst_return": -0.143875,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "median_excess_return": -0.03985,
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        "worst_return": -0.204597,
        "sufficient": false
      }
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        "end": "2024-05-24",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-05-30",
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      {
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        "fair_value": 58.133174,
        "relative_strength": 0.489759,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 75.886508,
        "energy": 77.089679,
        "activity_lines": [
          74.779998,
          72.510908,
          70.766666,
          70.035081
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 77.800003,
        "volume": 125,
        "typical_volume": 100.0,
        "trend": 69.32374,
        "fair_value": 58.282182,
        "relative_strength": 0.35464,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 76.714389,
        "energy": 76.200293,
        "activity_lines": [
          75.853333,
          73.870909,
          71.49,
          70.609477
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 75.900002,
        "volume": 274,
        "typical_volume": 113.7,
        "trend": 69.651283,
        "fair_value": 58.410495,
        "relative_strength": -1.818907,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.024244,
        "energy": 74.106601,
        "activity_lines": [
          76.106667,
          74.661818,
          71.979524,
          71.033752
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 73.099998,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 113.7,
        "trend": 69.849495,
        "fair_value": 58.53728,
        "relative_strength": -7.298821,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.525996,
        "energy": 54.689212,
        "activity_lines": [
          75.333333,
          74.721818,
          72.162381,
          71.25625
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 71.5,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 113.7,
        "trend": 70.043463,
        "fair_value": 58.655634,
        "relative_strength": -11.643981,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 45.45834,
        "energy": 32.503851,
        "activity_lines": [
          73.993333,
          74.350909,
          72.182857,
          71.362734
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 69.400002,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 113.7,
        "trend": 70.18052,
        "fair_value": 58.755053,
        "relative_strength": -13.136299,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 17.705097,
        "energy": 18.790166,
        "activity_lines": [
          72.126667,
          73.492727,
          72.009524,
          71.32122
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 68.900002,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 107.7,
        "trend": 70.320547,
        "fair_value": 58.848225,
        "relative_strength": -15.934879,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 5.342416,
        "energy": 23.951782,
        "activity_lines": [
          70.580001,
          72.554546,
          71.805238,
          71.238606
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 66.699997,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 102.2,
        "trend": 70.354514,
        "fair_value": 58.933377,
        "relative_strength": -21.638047,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -35.746382,
        "energy": 39.937346,
        "activity_lines": [
          68.893333,
          71.327273,
          71.417143,
          71.005022
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 68.300003,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 102.2,
        "trend": 70.36,
        "fair_value": 59.029393,
        "relative_strength": -17.968278,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -24.850356,
        "energy": 44.553302,
        "activity_lines": [
          68.353334,
          70.532728,
          71.22,
          70.872473
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 70.599998,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 80.2,
        "trend": 70.463334,
        "fair_value": 59.134071,
        "relative_strength": -16.886626,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -23.685086,
        "energy": 47.173118,
        "activity_lines": [
          68.9,
          70.234546,
          71.259048,
          70.887957
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 74.400002,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 80.2,
        "trend": 70.69,
        "fair_value": 59.261284,
        "relative_strength": -11.043277,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 36.697889,
        "energy": 21.413113,
        "activity_lines": [
          70.773334,
          70.69091,
          71.629048,
          71.141936
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 73.0,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 80.2,
        "trend": 70.9,
        "fair_value": 59.385604,
        "relative_strength": -10.728072,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 39.337752,
        "energy": 26.051854,
        "activity_lines": [
          71.846667,
          70.934546,
          71.820476,
          71.290968
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 73.199997,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 78.75,
        "trend": 71.09,
        "fair_value": 59.509989,
        "relative_strength": -11.376018,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 42.720738,
        "energy": 35.984103,
        "activity_lines": [
          72.713333,
          71.301818,
          71.995238,
          71.439355
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 72.199997,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 78.75,
        "trend": 71.13,
        "fair_value": 59.629789,
        "relative_strength": -12.28196,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 40.582367,
        "energy": 35.513597,
        "activity_lines": [
          72.813332,
          71.536363,
          72.029523,
          71.510968
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 71.699997,
        "volume": 149,
        "typical_volume": 86.2,
        "trend": 71.093333,
        "fair_value": 59.751858,
        "relative_strength": -15.126618,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 38.533066,
        "energy": 29.520044,
        "activity_lines": [
          72.486664,
          71.696362,
          71.983809,
          71.547741
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}