{ "ticker": { "uuid": "83800efa-86ff-461b-9e75-cf46b91a6eec", "symbol": "EZU", "name": "ISHARES MSCI EUROZONE ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.103, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.841, "architecture_energy": 61.041, "architecture_maturity": 37.094, "architecture_confidence": 84.092, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.5, "rotation_up": 56.92, "upward_expansion": 82.02, "deceleration": 53.24, "rotation_down": 20.99, "downward_expansion": 11.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 69.628, 69.114144, 68.101479, 67.051037 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 71.57, "trend_reference": 66.093725, "distance_from_trend": 0.082856, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 52.797394, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.355559, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.050213, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.081538, "excess_performance": -0.044087, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082856, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035095, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.355559, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037948, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.000502, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028663, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.081538, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.166804, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2949177, "relative_activity": 0.449978, "balance": 1.166804, "dry_up": 0.595161, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028894, "annualized_volatility": 0.201978, "from_high_reference": -0.003481, "from_low_reference": 0.253031 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 66.093725, "fair_value_reference": 52.797394, "structural_low": 58.869085, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.005056, "positive_rate": 0.514286, "directional_follow_through": 0.514286, "median_excess_return": -0.003221, "regime_survival": 0.742857, "best_return": 0.121216, "worst_return": -0.077186, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.035094, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.035663, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.141989, "worst_return": -0.134336, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.088318, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.042467, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.183503, "worst_return": -0.0564, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.751336, "energy": 32.052481, "activity_lines": [ 68.226, 68.240121, 67.238285, 66.431998 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 69.57, "volume": 4652227, "typical_volume": 7107971.75, "trend": 65.867361, "fair_value": 52.606267, "relative_strength": 0.674542, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.786417, "energy": 38.951506, "activity_lines": [ 68.654667, 68.520289, 67.594847, 66.683125 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 71.57, "volume": 2949177, "typical_volume": 6554050.7, "trend": 66.093725, "fair_value": 52.797394, "relative_strength": 0.050213, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.840534, "energy": 61.041045, "activity_lines": [ 69.628, 69.114144, 68.101479, 67.051037 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }