{ "ticker": { "uuid": "83843fad-a541-4c33-aa36-87fbc12ee025", "symbol": "ALHYP", "name": "HiPay Group SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.724, "architecture_energy": 35.615, "architecture_maturity": 16.959, "architecture_confidence": 94.46, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.52, "rotation_up": 20.18, "upward_expansion": 10.69, "deceleration": 37.29, "rotation_down": 50.71, "downward_expansion": 77.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.470667, 5.554909, 5.606619, 5.610086 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.52, "trend_reference": 5.732, "distance_from_trend": -0.036985, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.303187, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.244166, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.763664, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.095082, "excess_performance": -0.148393, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.036985, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129581, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.244166, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033098, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.277637, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037429, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.095082, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.761249, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16264, "relative_activity": 1.172573, "balance": 0.761249, "dry_up": 0.668278, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070234, "annualized_volatility": 0.476377, "from_high_reference": -0.486512, "from_low_reference": 0.194805 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.732, "fair_value_reference": 7.303187, "structural_low": 4.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.04414, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.043826, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.455197, "worst_return": -0.197015, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.071579, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.13847, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.612371, "worst_return": -0.305328, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.056497, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.019716, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.915789, "worst_return": -0.375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.261146, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.143206, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.322105, "worst_return": -0.329787, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01737, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.149682, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037464, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031977, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09887, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.168142, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.138191, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.241866, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142259, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066019, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.120902, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.253846, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031579, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 8.12, "volume": 40585, "typical_volume": 15064.8, "trend": 5.308333, "fair_value": 10.839006, "relative_strength": 45.824057, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.439687, "energy": 93.729631, "activity_lines": [ 7.449333, 6.600545, 5.926524, 5.640688 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 8.26, "volume": 18773, "typical_volume": 15251.4, "trend": 5.438, "fair_value": 10.870673, "relative_strength": 48.951357, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.424299, "energy": 91.722904, "activity_lines": [ 7.881333, 7.016909, 6.184714, 5.831118 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 7.62, "volume": 6611, "typical_volume": 15418.85, "trend": 5.547, "fair_value": 10.895288, "relative_strength": 38.08152, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.553617, "energy": 85.663913, "activity_lines": [ 7.921333, 7.246909, 6.366429, 5.971892 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 7.98, "volume": 4362, "typical_volume": 15298.05, "trend": 5.669333, "fair_value": 10.92125, 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15484.2, "trend": 5.92, "fair_value": 10.987147, "relative_strength": 27.995787, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.807261, "energy": 38.33235, "activity_lines": [ 7.797333, 7.865091, 7.073571, 6.549828 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-06", "close": 6.78, "volume": 4407, "typical_volume": 15265.3, "trend": 5.979333, "fair_value": 10.980737, "relative_strength": 25.881734, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.091449, "energy": 27.41741, "activity_lines": [ 7.425333, 7.698182, 7.108714, 6.605312 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-13", "close": 6.98, "volume": 2689, "typical_volume": 15156.9, "trend": 6.053667, "fair_value": 10.969455, "relative_strength": 29.789523, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.385925, "energy": 24.385816, "activity_lines": [ 7.176, 7.558545, 7.157, 6.669871 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-20", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 5.74, "volume": 5065, "typical_volume": 15047.15, "trend": 5.978, "fair_value": 7.334341, "relative_strength": -24.743735, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.970987, "energy": 9.858683, "activity_lines": [ 5.673333, 5.668, 5.650238, 5.702688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.44, "volume": 7484, "typical_volume": 14660.0, "trend": 5.904, "fair_value": 7.328956, "relative_strength": -28.052854, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.803951, "energy": 26.007137, "activity_lines": [ 5.586667, 5.630909, 5.637, 5.667978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.3, "volume": 8264, "typical_volume": 14234.25, "trend": 5.813333, "fair_value": 7.322161, "relative_strength": -30.028902, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.48616, "energy": 42.610955, "activity_lines": [ 5.478667, 5.572364, 5.611095, 5.629011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.52, "volume": 16264, "typical_volume": 13870.35, "trend": 5.732, "fair_value": 7.303187, "relative_strength": -27.763664, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.72423, "energy": 35.615003, "activity_lines": [ 5.470667, 5.554909, 5.606619, 5.610086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }