{ "ticker": { "uuid": "838c9b3a-eac9-4d09-bd47-78be8c9221d3", "symbol": "600476", "name": "Hunan Copote Science Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.953, "architecture_energy": 54.668, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.96, "rotation_up": 23.49, "upward_expansion": 8.7, "deceleration": 58.45, "rotation_down": 56.79, "downward_expansion": 82.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.842667, 8.977455, 9.812429, 10.478667 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.49, "trend_reference": 11.740333, "distance_from_trend": -0.191675, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.956282, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.365484, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.112209, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.447292, "excess_performance": -0.404088, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.191675, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16808, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.365484, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.180243, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.321122, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034844, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.447292, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.157909, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7775942, "relative_activity": 0.481258, "balance": 0.157909, "dry_up": 0.496524, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108049, "annualized_volatility": 0.506986, "from_high_reference": -0.519007, "from_low_reference": 0.303571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.740333, "fair_value_reference": 14.956282, "structural_low": 7.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.00131, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.029335, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.287199, "worst_return": -0.208042, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.0105, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.053954, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.531727, "worst_return": -0.232544, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.024627, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.072578, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.395181, "worst_return": -0.344379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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11.664022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.99, "volume": 12835631, "typical_volume": 20127837.2, "trend": 12.672, "fair_value": 15.143205, "relative_strength": -40.507918, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.63201, "energy": 84.387678, "activity_lines": [ 9.204, 9.923091, 10.586619, 11.411441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.54, "volume": 8633300, "typical_volume": 19827711.4, "trend": 12.449, "fair_value": 15.093141, "relative_strength": -38.977308, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.515441, "energy": 82.856585, "activity_lines": [ 8.922667, 9.549455, 10.342952, 11.14486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.0, "volume": 9559900, "typical_volume": 19092874.9, "trend": 12.189333, "fair_value": 15.042051, "relative_strength": -42.609398, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.972699, "energy": 74.332714, "activity_lines": [ 8.570667, 9.152182, 10.071905, 10.857828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.78, "volume": 6121300, "typical_volume": 18550496.2, "trend": 11.957667, "fair_value": 14.994359, "relative_strength": -36.368111, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.005069, "energy": 61.342266, "activity_lines": [ 8.592667, 8.970545, 9.89881, 10.637871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.49, "volume": 7775942, "typical_volume": 16157539.05, "trend": 11.740333, "fair_value": 14.956282, "relative_strength": -32.112209, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.952841, "energy": 54.668153, "activity_lines": [ 8.842667, 8.977455, 9.812429, 10.478667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }