{ "ticker": { "uuid": "83916b93-40cf-4596-a9db-31d5ef7c50ee", "symbol": "200539", "name": "Guangdong Electric Power Development Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 82.997, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -42.152, "architecture_energy": 68.054, "architecture_maturity": 11.532, "architecture_confidence": 70.643, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.9, "rotation_up": 16.36, "upward_expansion": 23.3, "deceleration": 43.17, "rotation_down": 76.77, "downward_expansion": 67.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.909391, 1.96412, 2.035851, 2.045872 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.9, "trend_reference": 2.04114, "distance_from_trend": -0.069148, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.006635, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.053141, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.799934, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.035533, "excess_performance": -0.042933, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069148, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032791, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.053141, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118929, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.057999, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011521, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.035533, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.63884, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4018933, "relative_activity": 0.521989, "balance": 0.63884, "dry_up": 0.703695, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050722, "annualized_volatility": 0.222252, "from_high_reference": -0.173913, "from_low_reference": 0.073446 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.04114, "fair_value_reference": 2.006635, "structural_low": 1.798341, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.001968, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01295, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.066667, "worst_return": -0.009009, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.051546, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.098596, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.144444, "worst_return": 0.004545, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.025773, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.009104, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.05, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037209, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024509, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.043641, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005376, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021277, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021739, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038889, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021164, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.066246, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010417, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 2.434523, "volume": 5918120, "typical_volume": 4370487.05, "trend": 2.205085, "fair_value": 2.181969, "relative_strength": 16.073215, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.49106, "energy": 71.931925, 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{ "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.005842, "volume": 3600754, "typical_volume": 8027837.35, "trend": 2.033223, "fair_value": 2.019417, "relative_strength": -7.121746, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.318983, "energy": 21.246258, "activity_lines": [ 2.053158, 2.103288, 2.105561, 2.081451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.867508, "volume": 6319209, "typical_volume": 8137709.55, "trend": 2.035473, "fair_value": 2.016284, "relative_strength": -4.569489, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.684397, "energy": 46.000943, "activity_lines": [ 1.980548, 2.055622, 2.084196, 2.07076 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.92, "volume": 6164764, "typical_volume": 8208760.85, "trend": 2.039473, "fair_value": 2.013487, "relative_strength": -1.96014, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.438754, "energy": 58.873043, "activity_lines": [ 1.946268, 2.022819, 2.06851, 2.06331 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.91, "volume": 5168828, "typical_volume": 8169206.0, "trend": 2.040807, "fair_value": 2.010187, "relative_strength": -0.70511, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.542845, "energy": 66.4908, "activity_lines": [ 1.924654, 1.99256, 2.052347, 2.054957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.9, "volume": 4018933, "typical_volume": 7699268.65, "trend": 2.04114, "fair_value": 2.006635, "relative_strength": -5.799934, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.152366, "energy": 68.053898, "activity_lines": [ 1.909391, 1.96412, 2.035851, 2.045872 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }