{ "ticker": { "uuid": "83923828-c198-44de-8970-3a163f03a541", "symbol": "UVV", "name": "Universal Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 84.704, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.072, "architecture_energy": 17.959, "architecture_maturity": 30.757, "architecture_confidence": 68.099, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.66, "rotation_up": 27.72, "upward_expansion": 25.02, "deceleration": 38.23, "rotation_down": 37.2, "downward_expansion": 52.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.21887, 52.16167, 52.52293, 52.596313 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 50.84, "trend_reference": 52.867967, "distance_from_trend": -0.038359, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.338625, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.03043, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.813123, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.106585, "excess_performance": -0.23221, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.038359, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004455, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.03043, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07765, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138131, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035203, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.106585, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.674331, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1616032, "relative_activity": 1.439561, "balance": 0.674331, "dry_up": 1.114708, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054593, "annualized_volatility": 0.210118, "from_high_reference": -0.130056, "from_low_reference": 0.049598 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.867967, "fair_value_reference": 49.338625, "structural_low": 49.19, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.001563, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": 0.015113, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.129952, "worst_return": -0.141113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.00158, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.008834, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.100629, "worst_return": -0.089462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.040936, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.072384, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.214229, "worst_return": -0.039475, 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"gate": "down", "direction": -56.290313, "energy": 48.207959, "activity_lines": [ 51.442471, 52.121474, 52.50787, 52.658673 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 53.14, "volume": 1454413, "typical_volume": 1117878.1, "trend": 52.803222, "fair_value": 49.116836, "relative_strength": -7.153886, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.110806, "energy": 28.143308, "activity_lines": [ 51.895484, 52.215205, 52.567916, 52.682423 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 53.75, "volume": 903604, "typical_volume": 1110415.15, "trend": 52.87721, "fair_value": 49.194536, "relative_strength": -5.288205, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.651168, "energy": 11.570878, "activity_lines": [ 52.5469, 52.430026, 52.684818, 52.743506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.69, "volume": 1031377, "typical_volume": 1113741.55, "trend": 52.934285, "fair_value": 49.267438, "relative_strength": -7.856122, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.193537, "energy": 12.311843, "activity_lines": [ 52.683275, 52.447394, 52.69297, 52.731428 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.84, "volume": 1616032, "typical_volume": 1122586.5, "trend": 52.867967, "fair_value": 49.338625, "relative_strength": -13.813123, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.071713, "energy": 17.958737, "activity_lines": [ 52.21887, 52.16167, 52.52293, 52.596313 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }